Rugby League

2025-07-06 - Manly Sea Eagles vs South Sydney Rabbitohs

A Sports Betting Pick by Stu

Manly Sea Eagles v South Sydney Rabbitohs
Rugby League : Australia : NRL
Sunday 6th July 2025 - KO 1600 AEST

Manly Sea Eagles

Manly secured a scrappy victory over the Tigers in Round 17—buoyed by Tom Trbojevic’s impressive stint at centre, racking up 136 metres and seven tackle breaks and at least at this stage appear slightly more cohesive than their visitors.

Manly also host the game at home, free from Origin disruptions, with strong support in the crowd and momentum on their side making for a favourable Sunday afternoon conditions for the Sea Eagles. Currently Manly are in 9th, 7-8 and just one win outside the top 8 and still have one bye remaining.

With Tom Trboyevics workload decreasing by shifting to the centres, it is hoped he can remain injury free as I believe everyone who follows Rugby league can see the difference he makes to the side. The upside of this allows Lehi Hopoate to start at fullback, he is growing in confidence each week and this could be the settled backline going forward.

Manly Sea Eagles Team News – only one named change, Talau comes in for the injured Nathan Brown.

South Sydney Rabbitohs

Under Wayne Bennett, Souths still have fight but have shown some terrible lapses in concentration during such periods concede way too many points which has cost them dearly this season.

Players like Jack Wighton and the anticipated return of Brandon Smith offer small sparks of hope but if the wins don’t start now, the season is surely over for the Rabbits. Souths currently sit just 2 points clear of the woeful Titans in 16th, 6-10 record but still have 2 byes remaining.

However, Souths are massively undermanned and low on confidence. Their current form has seen their defensive control utterly collapse, and the club lacks cohesion without Latrell or Walker with both missing for this match.

They’re also winless in their past five, and while value punters might fancy their shade-of-upset, the underdog status feels earned and tough to overlook.

South Sydney Rabbitohs Team News – a bit of a reshuffle in the backline, and 2 new faces come on to the bench, Liam Le Blanc and Lewis Dodd.

Odds

Manly are strong favourites here, $1.33 to $3.40, the line 9.5 points and total combined points is see at 47.5

The Betting Verdict

This Sunday pits two struggling yet hopeful sides against each other, the Sea Eagles, nudging back into finals contention after a solid victory last week, and the Rabbitohs, desperately seeking some form under Wayne Bennett. While Manly holds the upper hand with the betting odds, underlying team dynamics could make this a tighter affair than expected.

Overall H2H 22-23, with the last 2 matches shared. Manly win 62% of their home matches and the Rabbits are 7-11 at Brookvale, oddly Manly haven’t beaten Souths at home since 2019, losing 2 matches across that time frame.

Souths are in the midst of a crisis. A five-game losing streak has dragged them down to 16th on the ladder, thanks in part to terrible defence that conceded 171 points across the 5 match losing streak. High-profile absences—Latrell Mitchell for Blues duty and Cody Walker through injury—have compounded their issues, stripping the Rabbitohs of critical spine experience.

Manly’s recent form and uplift in confidence have been evident but consistency is still an issue. Their adaptability, evidenced by moving Turbo to centre and dominant home record, plus five multi-digit wins recently will likely unsettle the Rabbitohs.

Manly also have full-strength spine, which should sustain structure and creativity in attack against a makeshift backline from Souths. Despite the hype, inconsistency has been a blight on Manly’s season. They’re just under 50% in 2025 and sitting just outside the top eight, with flashes of mediocrity amid the sparkle.

I Expect a determined Sea Eagles performance with energy and confident enough to dominate early to hold off any South Sydney rally. The Best play is Manly to cover the line -9.5 depending on your read of the Rabbitohs’ attacking resilience and I feel the combined points will go very close to the suggested 47.5 making this a difficult choice.