Rugby League
2025-07-09 - New South Wales vs Queensland
A Sports Betting Pick by Stu
Rugby League : Australia : State of Origin 3 decider
Wednesday 9th July 2025 - KO 2005 AEST
New South Wales Blues
NSW’s major asset heading into Game 3 is cohesion. Retaining the same 17 brings continuity, particularly across the spine with Cleary, Luai, Mitchell, and To’o all combining effectively. Having the match in Sydney provides not only crowd support but tactical comfort—this squad has trained and played in these surroundings.
Their Game 1 win was based on grinding Queensland down, winning the possession battle, and executing under pressure. That strategy is expected again in Game 3.
However, there are a few areas of vulnerability. Nathan Cleary’s injury is being carefully managed, but if he is hindered, NSW could lose their composure in high-pressure moments as was seen with his kicking game in the first half of game two.
Zac Lomax, stepping up as kicker, has been erratic at times—a potential factor in a close match. Questions also remain about the Blues bench impact, Players like Max King and Stefano Utoikamanu have drawn criticism for failing to provide the same punch off the interchange as Queensland’s more experienced rotation.
New South Wales Team news – no changes from game 2.
Queensland Maroons
Queensland’s biggest strength lies in their mentality and resilience. Despite a poor Game 1 showing, they return with renewed energy and tactical changes. Josh Papalii’s return adds size and experience in the middle, while Tom Dearden—handed the No. 7 jersey after the sensational dumping of captain and half, DCE for game two has been praised for his competitiveness and ability to step up in big games.
Tabuai-Fidow at fullback gives the Maroons a livewire capable of breaking the game open, and Holmes adds reliability under the high ball. Billy Slater’s approach—selecting based on form and potential—has injected belief back into the squad.
Yet there are risks in change. New combinations, particularly across the backline, may struggle for cohesion in a high-intensity decider. Although not proven at this level, Reece Walsh’s omission despite his explosive talent, could prove costly if Queensland lack x-factor in attack.
There's also the issue of discipline; the Maroons have leaked penalties and struggled to control the ruck area, especially when behind on the scoreboard. Against a well-drilled Blues outfit, that lack of polish can prove decisive.
Queensland Team news – Josh Papalii is set for his first Origin game since 2022 and centre Gehamat Shibasaki is preparing for his Queensland debut with Kalyn Ponga out injured.
Odds
The visiting Cowboys will start as slight favourites, $1.43 to $2.88, the line is 2.5 points and combined points 49.5
The Betting Verdict
With the series tied one all, the 2025 State of Origin reaches its climax at Accor Stadium in Sydney on Wednesday, July 9. Expect fireworks, big hits, and another classic added to Origin folklore.
This match is shaping up as a true blockbuster; New South Wales, brimming with belief after their Game one triumph and near miracle comeback in Game two, face off against a Queensland side fuelled by pride, reshuffled talent, and a thirst for revenge. Not to mention the recall of Papalii and Munsters fathers passing which will no doubt be fuel to the fire for those players.
New South Wales come into this match with confidence and consistency. Coach Laurie Daley has stuck with the same squad that fell agonisingly short from Game two, reflecting a trust in chemistry and structure that the whole squad bought into.
Key forward Payne Haas who has been the player of the series to date, has managed a back injury via a pain killer to remain available, and Nathan Cleary, despite groin concerns, will take the field with goalkicking responsibilities shifted to Zac Lomax who will have learnt a lot from his last poor outing. Playing in Sydney adds another layer of advantage, with a loud home crowd behind them and history on their side—deciders played at home have typically swung blue.
Queensland, however, are no strangers to overcoming adversity almost to the point they like it. Coach Billy Slater has rolled the dice by recalling veteran prop Josh Papalii from representative retirement to inject power into the forward pack which has not been good this series. Brisbane centre Gehamat Shibasaki is handed a debut following a superb run of form at club level, but everyone knows Origin is different, what a litmus test for the young man.
A major backline shake-up, Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow moves to fullback, Valentine Holmes shifts to the wing, and 18th man Reece Walsh is relegated to the reserves barring injury. Slater has signalled a bold free flowing intent, likely hoping unpredictability can unsettle a more settled NSW outfit.
Bookmakers have installed New South Wales as clear favourites, with the Blues paying around $1.40 in the head-to-head market, while Queensland sit as $3.00 underdogs. The line 8.5 in favour of NSW, and total points markets are hovering around 42.5 to 43.5, reflecting expectations of a tense, grind-it-out decider rather than a try-fest.
Overall stats between the teams is still very close, despite the 8 series Queensland won in a row, 61-71 with 2 draws. NSW win 62% at home, while the Maroons, are 11-21 at this venue. While Queensland are never to be written off in a decider, New South Wales simply appear too settled and too strong and too structured.
Expect them to play a controlled, disciplined game, limiting errors and turning possession into pressure and slowly wearing down their opponents. Queensland’s changes might spark moments of brilliance, but they’re likely to be outgunned over the full 80 minutes.
The 2025 State of Origin decider promises to be an absorbing contest. NSW have the edge in structure and momentum, while Queensland’s unpredictability and passion make them dangerous.
For punters, the alternate handicap market -4.5 is a solid choice, but the smarter play may be focusing on a low-scoring match with NSW edging home.
First try scorer – Latrell Mitchell $9.50
NSW to win by 8
The Pick :
New South Wales 22-14 Queensland
FIXED ODDS BETTING TIP :
Take the combined points Under 42.5 points as Origin deciders are often gritty, low-scoring affairs at $1.91 with Bet365
