Rugby League
2025-07-13 - New Zealand Warriors vs Wests Tigers
A Sports Betting Pick by Stu
Rugby League : Australia : NRL Season 2025
Sunday 13th July 2025 - KO 1400 AEST
New Zealand Warriors
The Warriors start this match in 4th position on a 10-5 record and hold a 2 game lead on their nearest rivals, Brisbane in fifth. Their edge defence has improved considerably since mid-season, and the ability to grind out wins in tight matches is something they’ve developed well under Andrew Webster.
The leadership of Addin Fonua-Blake in the middle continues to anchor their pack, and their forward rotation, even with some absences is reliable and hard-hitting.
Injuries have disrupted the Warriors rhythm of late, with Luke Metcalf and Charnze Nicoll-Klokstad sidelined, they will now have to rely on less experienced playmakers such as Tanah Boyd and Taine Tuaupiki, who, while promising, may lack some composure.
Their attacking execution has taken a dip, especially notable in recent weeks where they’ve struggled to score more than 24 points in any of their past five games and their set finishes have been erratic. These offensive lapses could allow a fast-starting team like the Tigers to stay in the contest longer than they should.
New Zealand Warriors Team news – lots of changes, Taine Tuaupiki comes in at Fullback, the loss of halfback Luke Metcalf brings Tanah Boyd into the halves, Dallin Watene-Zelezniak.
Jackson Ford and Leka Halasima both move into the starting side, Tanner Stowers-Smith is on the bench. Capewell may make a return after origin.
Wests Tigers
After a long stretch of losses, the Tigers finally broke through with a statement win and major upset over the Roosters in Round 18, and it could not have come at a better time. This moves the Tigers to 14th on a 6-10 record with one bye still to use.
Their young outside backs Starford To’a and speedster Charlie Staines are beginning to find form, offering strike power and agility out wide. Terrell May continues to impress as a superb offloader and has brought maturity to a forward pack that often lacked consistency. There's also the return of Api Koroisau providing stability in the spine, and Latu Fainu has been in fine form too, giving them better direction and control in close contests.
Despite their recent win, the Tigers remain one of the worst defensive sides in the competition, especially on the road. They concede an average of 28 points per away game and have struggled to contain quick shifts to the wing an area the Warriors will no doubt target.
Consistency is also a concern, Wests can go from gritty and structured one week to error-prone and passive the next. Their discipline can unravel quickly, and they remain vulnerable to giving up multiple tries when momentum turns.
Wests Tigers Team news – Jarome Luai should back up after the Origin, Hooker Api Koroisau returns, Tristan Hope and Jack Bird come onto the bench.
Odds
The visiting Cowboys will start as slight favourites, $1.44 to $2.85, the line is 7.5 points and combined points 46.5
The Betting Verdict
As the NRL regular season enters its final stretch, the Warriors host the Wests Tigers at Go Media Stadium in Auckland for an important Round 19 clash. Though the Warriors sit as heavy favourites and have dominated this head-to-head in recent years, the Tigers are encouraged by a surprising Round 18 upset over the Roosters making this matchup more competitive than the odds may suggest.
Overall H2H is in favour with the home team, 22-16 and the venue stats much the same, 57% at home for the Warriors and 6-9 for wests. The Warriors won the meeting earlier this season at Campbelltown 24-26 thanks largely to a great performance from Luke Metcalf and a late try to secure the victory. A win here will make it 3 in a row for New Zealand and 9 of the last 10.
On the surface, the Warriors have the advantage. However, several key injuries and recent inconsistencies in attack have taken the polish off their top-eight aspirations. The Tigers, meanwhile, still occupy the lower end of the ladder, but they’re showing signs of resilience and have the kind of unpredictable energy that can catch teams off guard — especially those dealing with roster instability.
Given the Warriors recent attacking struggles and the Tigers patchy defence, this suggests a close contest with the Warriors winning by approx. 6 points. This line gives the Tigers a healthy buffer in a game they could easily stay in. I also see the total points under as a great choice with the Warriors solid defence in combination with a number of crucial positional changes which will likely disrupt the attacking structure creating errors.
While the Warriors deserve favouritism at home, the Tigers are in their best mental state all season and could push the home side all the way. Still, the Warriors forward dominance, and defensive discipline should see them win the contest, but only just.
The Pick :
New Zealand 22-16 Wests Tigers
