Rugby League

2025-07-25 - Brisbane Broncos vs Parramatta Eels

A Sports Betting Pick by Stu

Brisbane Broncos v Parramatta Eels
Rugby League : Australia : NRL Season 2025
Friday 25th July 2025 - KO 2000 AEST

Brisbane Broncos

The Broncos enter Round 20 with top-four ambitions still well and truly alive.

Sitting 5th on the ladder with a 12-5 record, Brisbane haven’t had the best season but have turned Suncorp into a stronghold in 2025 winning 6 of 8 this season compared with 4 of 9 away, thriving off their ability to dominate field position and exploit fatigue with powerful middle-forward surges.

Adam Reynolds continues to steer the ship with control, and his partnership with Ezra Mam has only grown more dangerous with each round since his return from suspension.

Coming off a tight win 2 weeks ago vs the Titans 14-26 then a bye, Brisbane’s confidence will be high, particularly given their recent form which includes a dominant defensive stretch—conceding under 16 points per game over the last month. They’ve also rotated their bench smartly this season, keeping key forwards fresh for this final push.

However, while the Broncos have largely been strong against top 8 sides, they’ve shown occasional lapses in intensity against lower-ranked opponents—something coach Maguire will be wary of heading into this match against an Eels side with nothing to lose and a fairly bright future with lots of young talent.

Brisbane Broncos Team news - Brisbane are largely positive, with no major injury concerns and their forward pack at full strength. Payne Haas returns after being rested following Origin 3, Jesse Arthars starts on the wing and Prop Corey Jensen will come off the bench.

Parramatta Eels

For Parramatta, 2025 has been a year of inconsistency, underperformance, and a number of near-misses. Now sitting 16th with a 5-12 record, and no byes remaining, the Eels are realistically in “must-win” territory every week from here. Any losses where the last placed Titans win could mean another wooden spoon.

But with desperation comes unpredictability—and the Eels still have players capable of sparking an upset. Mitchell Moses has returned to fitness and was a huge component for the Blues before his injury.

Clint Gutherson remains a workhorse at the back, and their forward rotation still packs punch through the likes of Junior Paulo and J'maine Hopgood.

The Eels biggest issue has been defence, in particular on the edges and their inability to contain or prevent second-phase play has cost them dearly all season. This looms as a concern against a Broncos side that thrives off broken play, offloads and support running.

Parramatta Eels Team news - Mitch Moses returns from injury, Dean Hawkins starts at 6, Joash Papalii comes in at fullback. Will Penisini returns in the centres and Luca Moretti comes onto the bench

Odds

Brisbane will start as strong favourites, $1.22 to $4.50, the line is 14.5 points and combined points 48.5

The Betting Verdict

Friday night’s double-header wraps up with a compelling clash at Suncorp Stadium as the Brisbane Broncos host the Parramatta Eels in a match that is definitely the last chance for the visitors and a momentum check for the home side. While Brisbane look to push back into the top four, Parramatta are playing with backs to the wall, desperate to stay out of last place.

The H2H history between Brisbane and Parramatta is dead even at 26-26. The last meeting was a thriller last season, with Brisbane edging out the Eels 30-24 at home to make it 2 for 2 in 2024 after winning 14-30 at CommBank Stadium.

At Suncorp, the Broncos have historically had the edge, winning 70% of their matches against the Eels at this venue, a stat that underscores the challenge ahead of them. Parramatta’s last win in Brisbane came back in 2022, and what a win it was, 6-53!

Bookmakers have priced Brisbane as clear favourites, sitting $1.22 in the head-to-head market, with Parramatta out to $4.50. The line is set at 14.5 points, with the total match points line at 48.5.
From a betting standpoint, this match carries less value in the head-to-head given Brisbane’s short price.

The line of 14.5 is tricky—Brisbane have covered similar lines in recent weeks, but Parramatta’s desperation and unpredictability late in the season could keep things closer than expected and the Eels are nowhere near the worst team in the league with some agonising close losses throughout 2025.

One area to focus on is total points. With Parramatta leaking tries and Brisbane in solid attacking rhythm, the over 48.5 total points looks like an attractive play, particularly under the lights at Suncorp where night games tend to open up late.

Additionally, for those eyeing player markets, Ezra Mam’s recent try-scoring run and Gutherson’s involvement for Parramatta offer solid anytime tryscorer options.

Brisbane have the consistency, the home advantage, and the forward muscle to control this match. But Parramatta’s desperation cannot be ignored. They’ll throw plenty at the Broncos, and if they can match Brisbane’s physicality early, this could be a tighter contest than many predict, certainly worthwhile looking at +14.5 head start.

Alternate Bet: Ezra Mam anytime try scorer at $2.70