Rugby League
2025-08-02 - St George Dragons vs Canberra Raiders
A Sports Betting Pick by Stu
Rugby League : Australia : NRL Season 2025
Saturday 2nd August 2025 - KO 1730 AEST
St George Illawarra Dragons
The Dragons have had little joy in 2025, sitting 12th with just 6 wins from 18 games. A season marked by instability in the halves, inconsistent forward effort, and fragile defence has left them struggling near the foot of the ladder. However, with four home games remaining—including this clash under lights at WIN Stadium—there is still opportunity to restore some credibility and finish the year on a competitive note.
Last week’s 38-32 loss to North Queensland was another example of the Dragons playing in patches but never threatening for the full 80 minutes, scoring 6 tries in total, 2 in a row followed by 3 in a row. Coach Shane Flanagan has resisted wholesale changes again this week, despite their juniors being on fire.
While the Dragons have only managed a 4-4 home record this season, two of those came at WIN Stadium, giving them a sliver of hope against a Raiders side that has shown occasional vulnerability away from Canberra.
St George Dragons Team news – Michael Molo starts, replacing Su’a and Hame Sele is added to the bench.
Canberra Raiders
The table topping Canberra Raiders enter Round 22 two points clear of the Bulldogs on a 16-3 record with a well-timed bye still remaining in round 24. The Raiders are aiming for 10 in a row here and with a congested table and little separating 10th to 5th, the Canberra Raiders will feel very happy with the season to date in the knowledge Ricky Stuart’s men are right in the prime position for post-season football.
The Raiders strength remains their forward rotation. With Joseph Tapine, Hudson Young and Corey Horsburgh laying the foundation, Canberra's physicality and ability to dominate the ruck and push offloads is a key point of difference. Inconsistency on attack and discipline lapses have plagued them all year—but that was put to bed after last weekend’s performance over the Knights 44-18 at home.
There a very few concerns for Canberra having lost just 3 matches all season, 2 of these came away from home, a 10-point loss to North Queensland and a 28-point loss to Manly in back to back weeks the only blemishes. That said, their recent record against the Dragons is commanding.
Canberra Raiders Team News – Seb Kris returns to the centres in the only change.
Odds
Canberra are the favoured team, $1.47 to $2.75, the line is 6.5 points and combined points 46.5
The Betting Verdict
The second match on Super Saturday stars the Dragons and Raiders in Wollongong with a crucial contest between two clubs who, while on different trajectories, both have much to play for.
The St George Illawarra Dragons, desperate to restore dignity after another forgettable campaign, host a Canberra Raiders outfit still charging towards the Minor premiership. With pressure mounting and only a handful of games remaining for St George, this match sets up as a proving ground for resolve, direction.
These sides have met 40 times, with Canberra holding a dominant edge 26 wins to the Dragons 13 with 1 draw. More telling is the recent history—the Raiders have won six of their past seven meetings, with the last 5 in a row, including a close 28-24 victory earlier this season in Round 18.
However, WIN Stadium hasn’t always been a happy hunting ground for the Raiders 6-6. Their last win in Wollongong came in 2021, and since then they’ve fallen twice at the venue. If the Dragons are to spring an upset, it’s likely to be here.
Canberra open as modest favourites in the head-to-head market at $1.47, with St George Illawarra priced at $2.75. The line is set at 6.5 points, while the total match points line hovers around 46 points
While the Raiders are justifiably favoured, the Dragons are unpredictable and may lift in front of a home crowd with little to lose.
That makes the Raiders -6.5 line a riskier play than it appears at first glance. Instead, the over 46.5 total points presents value. Both teams have at times had defensive issues and Canberra’s recent away games have been high-scoring. While the Dragons are conceding exactly 26 ppg. This shapes as a match where the scoreboard could tick over quickly, particularly if the game opens up in the second half.
While the Dragons have little left to play for beyond pride, they remain capable of throwing a spanner in the works for clubs like Canberra. However, the Raiders should win, if they can dominate the middle and stay composed, they should bank the two points—but don’t rule out a fight from the Red V.
Canberra to win by 10 points.
The Pick :
St George Dragons 22-32 Canberra Raiders
