Rugby League

2025-08-29 - Melbourne Storm vs Sydney Roosters

A Sports Betting Pick by Stu

Melbourne Storm v Sydney Roosters
Rugby League : Australia : NRL Season 2025
Friday 29 August 2025 Kick-off: 8:00 pm AEST | AAMI Park, Melbourne

Melbourne Storm

The Storm enter Round 26 sitting comfortably in the top four, currently 2nd on 40 points, 17-5 but still determined to shore up their position before September. Even without a full-strength lineup, Craig Bellamy’s system demands excellence and rarely wavers from its formula of discipline, control, and relentless pressure.

Jahrome Hughes is nearing full fitness adds a spark of assurance in the halves, while the forward pack continues to lay the kind of platform Melbourne has long been known for.

Still, Melbourne’s depth will be tested. With several of their strike players rested, this match hands opportunities to fringe backs and role players. Without Harry Grant at hooker, the Storm will lean on Bronson Garlick to steer the middle. It’s a chance to show that their depth can meet the same high standard.

Melbourne Storm Team news - Xavier Coates, Nick Meaney, Eli Katoa and Josh King are all rested with Harry Grant out suspended too, Bronson Garlick is his replacement. Siulagi Tuimalatu-Brown and Kane Bradley come on to the wings, Grant Anderson moves to centre. Alec MacDonald and Shawn Blore start and Nelson Asofa-Solomona has been added to the bench.

Sydney Roosters

For the Roosters, this clash is more than just another game — it’s survival. Sitting on the edge of the top eight, they must find something special to keep their finals dream alive and not only that, have to try and beat the Rabbits in the final round too.

The absence of Sam Walker to a head knock last weekend in the halves is a significant blow, forcing the Roosters to shuffle their playmaking combinations. James Tedesco’s experience at fullback and the emerging firepower of their outside backs offer plenty of attacking strike if they can gain a foothold.

Sydney are in 8th position, 11-11 and were going well with a nice run of three wins to climb into the top eight but suffered an upset loss at the hands of the Eels last weekend, they retained their position due to the Dolphins loss to Manly. This means the Roosters need to win their remaining 2 matches, if they can get a victory here, a home venue date with the Rabbits is their last fixture.

The challenge for Sydney lies in execution. AAMI Park has never been an easy venue for Sydney, and they’ve struggled to put consistent performances together on the road. Yet, the Storm have given them a chance by resting some players and have nothing to lose, this may mean the Roosters adopt a more fearless, expansive style — a strategy that could rattle Melbourne if the game opens up.

Sydney Roosters Team news – Sam walker is out, Sandon Smith now partners Savala while winger Daniel Tupou returns, no other changes expected.

Odds

The resting of some key players makes this match closer than it might have been, $1.70 to $2.20, the line is 2.5 points and combined points 44.5

The Betting Verdict

As the final 2 rounds approach, the NRL spotlight falls on AAMI Park, where the Melbourne Storm host the Sydney Roosters in a clash that not only carries prestige but also major finals implications, particularly for the visitors.

Melbourne lead the H2H record comfortably, 33-19 from the 52 meetings, while the record at AAMI park is even more impressive, Melbourne are 77% at home, while the Roosters have won here just 4 times from 14 attempts and last beating the Storm at home in late 2022.

Melbourne pride themselves on systems, structure, and clinical efficiency, Craig Bellamy has done this his entire career with great affect. The Roosters, on the other hand, will need to lean on unpredictability with offloads and strike power to upset the Storms rhythm.

If the Storm dictate tempo and control field position, they are nearly impossible to overcome, but if Sydney can drag the contest into a fast-paced, high-scoring affair, their attacking weapons could find joy against Melbourne’s reshuffled backline.

On balance, the Storm are deserved favourites — their home record and defensive structures give them the edge. However, with their squad rotated and the Roosters desperate to cling to their finals hopes, this may not be the straightforward contest the ladder suggests.

Melbourne Storm by 1–12 points is likely finishing point for this match but not without risks with all the changes. For me, I see this as a high-energy contest with both teams breaching the line regularly, making the “overs” total points @ 44.5 the best option for this fixture.