Rugby League

2025-08-31 - Cronulla Sharks vs Newcastle Knights

A Sports Betting Pick by Stu

Cronulla Sharks v Newcastle Knights
Rugby League : Australia : NRL
Sunday 31st August 2025 - KO 1400 AEST

Cronulla Sharks

At PointsBet Stadium, Cronulla have often shown themselves to be a team transformed — the energy of the Shire crowd creating an unpleasant atmosphere for visiting teams. Defensively, the Sharks typically remain structured, with Hynes and Trindall coming into form offensively at the right time too. This places Cronulla 6th, 13-9 record and its still possible to make the top 4 with some results going their way

But Cronulla’s Achilles heel has been their inability to close out tight matches and their finals record does not read well. Too often they’ve let slender leads slip in the final quarter, leaving points on the table and finals lost. With the season now on the line, Craig Fitzgibbon will be demanding a hardened mentality from his side, particularly in high-pressure moments where execution has sometimes deserted them.

Cronulla Sharks Team News – just a couple of changes, KL Iro comes back in after a long layoff, Jesse Colquhoun is the new lock, with Cam McInnes out for the rest of the season. Braden Hamlin-Uele has been added to the bench.

Newcastle Knights

Newcastle, have had a season to forget, with numerous injuries to key personnel and a sluggish start to 2025, and their coach announcing his departure this week. They are now in a fight to avoid the wooden spoon, any victory in their last 2 matches would deny that honour. Newcastle are in 16th, just 1 win clear of the last placed Titans 6-16 record which is telling.

Newcastle typically struggle in one of the toughest away assignments in rugby league – playing at Shark Park. Historically, the Knights have struggled at PointsBet stadium, often undone by Cronulla’s suffocating defence. To succeed here, they must maintain discipline with the ball and not gift the Sharks easy territory through errors or penalties, something the Knights have far too often in 2025.

Newcastle Knights Team News – no changes named although winger Marzhew may come back in on game day.

Odds

Cronulla start as heavy favourites, $1.14 to $6.00, the line 18.5 points and total points is 49.5

The Betting Verdict

With finals places tightening and only two rounds left to play, the clash between Cronulla and Newcastle looms as very important fixture for Cronulla with just fixtures remaining before it gets serious. The Sharks are fighting to reclaim consistency after an uneven season but there are signs they have clicked again in recent weeks hitting the post season with momentum.

Newcastle could surprise, their coach is leaving so there may be some emotion in this fixture and they will want to try and take any chance of the claiming Wooden spoon away. Expect an arm wrestle through the middle early, with the contest likely to swing towards the home team as the game goes on.

Overall H2H is just in favour of Newcastle 23-25, Cronulla won the match earlier this season by 20 points in Newcastle 14-34 and have won the past 2 matches played. The ground stats are strongly in favour of Cronulla, where they win 58% at home and Newcastle are 8-12 at this venue.

Bookmakers are giving Newcastle little to no chance here, with the Sharks at a lowly $1.14 compared to the Knights $6, but this is far from straightforward. Newcastle, if in the right frame of mind can trouble any team but I would expect Cronulla to win comfortably after 80minutes.

With the margin set at a high 18.5 points, I see Newcastle strong enough to stay within that handicap but it may be very close at full time.

The better option would be for the match to stay under the 50 point margin set, I think Cronullas defence is just too strong to see Newcastle score too many points and if Newcastle can defend well enough, 50 points seems a stretch, this is the best option here.