Rugby League

2025-09-14 - Canberra Raiders vs Brisbane Broncos

A Sports Betting Pick by Stu

Canberra Raiders v Brisbane Broncos
Rugby League : Australia : NRL
Sunday 14th September 2025 - KO 1605 AEST

Canberra Raiders

At GIO Stadium, the atmosphere will be uncompromising, after Caberra winning the minor premiership the Raiders fans are all in this season and it will be loud. The Raiders finished first in the regular season off an impressive 19-5 record and 7-1 record over Top 8 teams.

Canberra’s faithful know that the window is open, and this side has shown a ruthlessness when defending their home turf. The Raiders attack has found a pleasing balance, Jamal Fogarty steering with precision, Ethan Strange offering creativity at five-eighth, and Kaeo Weekes adding unpredictability from the back.

The forward pack, bruising yet mobile, has consistently won the middle in 2025, providing the platform for their backs to shine. Yet, as minor premiers, they also carry a burden—expectation can weigh heavily, and a defensive lapse or an untimely mistake can undo months of excellence.

Canberra Raiders Team News – Seb Kris is named at centre in the only change, Papalii is under a injury cloud but should play.

Brisbane Broncos

After scraping into the top 4 via a four match winning streak to end the regular season, Brisbane finished 4th, 15-9. The Broncos come into this match armed with sensational attacking prowess.

Payne Haas remains the heartbeat of their pack, a constant presence who bends the line and gives his playmakers space. Around him, the Broncos play with energy and pace, none more so than Reece Walsh, whose acceleration and vision make him one of the most dangerous players in the competition.

They have strike on the edges, speed to burn, and a swagger that has re-emerged in the closing weeks of the season. But the absence of their halfback, Adam Reynolds looms large, without their general, composure in the biggest moments becomes less certain.

Brisbane Broncos Team News – Skipper Adam Reynolds remains sidelined, Ben Hunt and Billy Walters start in the halves. Gehamat Shibasaki comes back into the team pushing Deine Mariner to the wing.

Odds

Storm start favourites due to their amazing home record, $1.70 to $2.20, the line 2.5 points and total points is 44.5

The Betting Verdict

The first week of the finals brings with it a clash between two clubs that have travelled very different paths in 2025. Canberra, minor premiers and masters of consistency, arrive with the weight of expectation.

They have built their season on composure, balance, and the ability to win tight games at home. Brisbane, by contrast, come in riding the waves of momentum, their campaign reignited by star power and a belief that even without Adam Reynolds, they can still strike fear into anyone on their day.

This match is more than a simple clash of styles; it is a test of temperament, with the winner comes the added advantage of a week off and a home semi-final, a loss though means a home match against whomever is the victor between the Sharks or Roosters.

Canberra thrives in structure, grinding their opponents down and forcing errors through sheer weight of possession. Brisbane thrives in chaos, capable of turning half chances into points through raw brilliance. Finals football, however, often punishes recklessness and rewards patience, and it is here where the Raiders discipline may count most.

The opening stages will be bruising, Haas leading Brisbane’s charge and Walsh searching for gaps against a compressed Raiders defence. Canberra, though, will look to control territory with Fogarty’s kicking game, forcing Brisbane to start sets deep in their own half. As fatigue sets in, the home side’s forward rotations and cool heads may begin to wear the Broncos down.

Overall matches played is in favour of the visitors, 17-23 with one draw. Canberra are strong at home winning 59% with Brisbane 9-14 but it is the results this season that show how strong Canberra are at home, winning 9 of their 10 matches played, the only loss was to the Bulldogs in round 10, this was also the only loss to a top 8 team in 2025 too.

These teams only met once this season, all the way back in round 2, Canberra coming out on top by 10 points, 32-22 with Brisbane scoring 12 of their 22 points in the last 15 minutes, Canberra won the match easily.

This game promises moments of brilliance and extended periods of arm-wrestle. The Broncos can thrill, but their spark may not be enough to last the full eighty against the discipline and depth of the minor premiers. Expect Brisbane to land blows, possibly even strike first, but Canberra’s structure and patience should see them home in the end.

Raiders to win by 8.