Italian Serie A
2026-02-14 - Lazio vs Atalanta
A Sports Betting Pick by Cafa
Italy Serie A - Round 25
Stadio Olimpico, Rome, Lazio, Italy (70,634)
Saturday, 14 February 2026, 18:00 CET
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Lazio Team News
Stranger things have happened, but Lazio started playing high-scoring derbies lately and it seems both teams find the net every single time Lazio runs out. Same has, crucially, proven to be true when Lazio faces a big side, such as Juventus (2-2), as they've been known to play very tight derbies with few or no goals at all earlier in the season.
Lazio is like that, they go hot and cold again, and it seems they are currently in their 'hot' period as they've scored three times against Genoa, twice against Juventus, and once against Bologna in a cup match that they eventually won after a penalty shootout.
Without a doubt, we'll be seeing a spirited Lazio side that wants to, and can, play offensive football. The only downside is that now they always seem to concede at least once.
Perhaps an important thing to note -- 8th-placed Lazio is six points behind 7th-placed Atalanta. Only a win would narrow the gap to something manageable, ergo, Lazio will go for the kill.
Atalanta Team News
Atalanta climbed the table to meet the big clubs like we said they would when they were in the bottom half due to a high number of draws. They started winning, and have quickly adapted to life without Ademola Lookman, too.
Atalanta just made light work of Juventus in the cup with a clean 3-0 win, and then followed that up with a 2-1 win against Cremonese, where our 'Atalanta clean sheet' bet has been ruined in the 94th minute.
Expect the Bergamo side to continue playing well, even in derbies such as this one. They lack the real quality to do well consistently - they're a flat track bully that's playing best against the minnows - but their offensive playing style is always making them a tricky opponent for any big Serie A side.
Probable Lineups
Lazio (4-3-3): Provedel - Marusic, Gila, Provstgaard, Pellegrini - Dele-Bashiru, Cataldi, Taylor - Isaksen, Maldini, Noslin. Coach Sarri.
Atalanta (3-4-2-1): Carnesecchi - Scalvini, Djimsiti, Ahanor - Zappacosta, De Roon, Ederson, Bernasconi - Samardzic, Zalewski - Scamacca. Coach Palladino.
Daniel Maldini, who has just been loaned out to Lazio despite being 25, will likely play as the false 9 for Lazio since they don't have any real strikers. De Ketelaere is doubtful for Atalanta.
The Betting Market
Atalanta is a big favourite at 2.25, despite it being an away game for them, which means Lazio gets no credit at all, despite being able to beat Juventus in the league and AC Milan in the cup on this same stadium.
Under 2.5 Goals is the favoured outcome with a price of 1.72, yet the opposite is true in the BTTS market as the Both Teams To Score: YES carries the price of 1.80.
The Betting Verdict
While it seems that both Lazio and Atalanta have offensive lineups that are inferior to what they could have fielded only a few weeks ago (Castellanos / Lookman), maybe this counterintuitively results with a more open game as the defenders fear the opponent as much. In any case, we're expecting an open game, not a tight one. This means both sides should score at least once, so the 1.80 on BTTS-Yes is tempting.
However, as we've seen recently from both of these sides, they can completely collapse at any given time, or can run out a 3-0 victor at any given time, too.
So it's the Over 2.5 for 2.10 that's the better bet here. Really, this can be 3-0 for Lazio or 0-3 for Atalanta.
The Statistics :
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The Pick :
Lazio 1-2 Atalanta
