Italian Serie A
2026-03-01 - AS Roma vs Juventus
A Sports Betting Pick by Cafa
Italy Serie A - Round 27
Stadio Olimpico, Rome, Lazio, Italy (70,634)
Sunday, 01 March 2026, 20:45 CET
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Roma Team News
Roma can lose here and there but generally this is a stable team, on par with Milan, that doesn't have any ups or downs.
Therefore, a lot of credit goes to coach Gasperini and we're almost certain Roma will be playing in the Champions League next season.
They're currently holding the 4th spot, with 4 points ahead of Juventus.
Juventus Team News
Juventus has imploded lately, they're conceding in bunches - 14 goals in last 5 outings - and no one has scored less than 2 against Juventus during this period. Galatasaray broke the record as they put 5 past Juventus in Istanbul.
This comes after a brief period when all went well for Spalletti and his crew and it seemed that Juventus is on the right path. But the problems are so deeply rooted in this team that they simply started emerging again.
For one, Jonathan David is not the type of forward that can be a sole striker as he's not physical. In short, the selection of players in Juventus is all wrong, and has been wrong for a long time.
Probable Lineups
Roma (3-4-2-1): Svilar - Ghilardi, Ndicka, Mancini - Celik, Cristante, Kone, Wesley - Pellegrini, Zaragoza - Malen. Coach Gasperini.
Juventus (4-2-3-1): Perin - Kalulu, Bremer, Kelly, Cambiaso - Koopmeiners, Thuram - Conceicao, McKennie, Yildiz - David. Coach Spalletti.
The Betting Market
You can get a significant profit if you have a hunch regarding who will win this, as is usual in derbies. Roma is priced at 2.75 while Juventus is priced at 2.97, which also leaves 3.12 for the draw.
Under 2.5 Goals is understandably the favoured outcome as this will likely be one of those low-scoring Italian derbies. Under is priced at 1.61.
The Both Teams To Score market gives us 1.95 for YES and 1.70 for NO. The latter could be a good bet.
The Betting Verdict
Juventus seems to be trending in the wrong direction and they've lost some important matches so easily lately. They're conceding in bunches and they seem ill-equipped to match Roma at this point.
Roma's roster is inferior but they're a better overall team and they know how to win games through teamwork - which is precisely what Juventus is lacking.
Let's have a go at Roma here.
The Statistics :
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The Pick :
Roma 1-0 Juventus
BEST BETTING TIP :
Take Roma To Win at 2.60 at Bet365
Gooner’s Statistical Value Bet
My stats look good here for AS Roma - giving them a 62pt advantage on Sunday - and that is a number that's boost by the fact that Juventus played, AND lost, in Europe midweek and will be playing on a short turnaround.
Recent Roma home form is good with five wins and a 1-1 draw against AC Milan in their last six home fixtures, although it should be noted that most opponents were weaker and the Milan game is the best parallel that we can draw for Juventus here.
Juventus have been pretty good on the road with 4 wins and 2 defeats, Juventus are always tough but I think that they may be feeling a little sorry for themselves after fighting back in their European tie to a 5-5 aggregate, only to concede twice in extra time and lose 7-5 to Galatasaray.
Head to head fixtures here lean towards Juventus at 1-3-2 with the last two matches ending 1-1 and the draw is always an option in Serie A when the big teams clash.
My sheet says that the draw is the best bet, however I think that midweek match may just be the thing that my sheet missed that will take the energy out of Juve here - and AS Roma can claim a victory.
Take AS ROMA to win - odds are 2.60 at Bet365 or 2.60 at CLoudbet which seem +EV to me.
Recent Roma home form is good with five wins and a 1-1 draw against AC Milan in their last six home fixtures, although it should be noted that most opponents were weaker and the Milan game is the best parallel that we can draw for Juventus here.
Juventus have been pretty good on the road with 4 wins and 2 defeats, Juventus are always tough but I think that they may be feeling a little sorry for themselves after fighting back in their European tie to a 5-5 aggregate, only to concede twice in extra time and lose 7-5 to Galatasaray.
Head to head fixtures here lean towards Juventus at 1-3-2 with the last two matches ending 1-1 and the draw is always an option in Serie A when the big teams clash.
My sheet says that the draw is the best bet, however I think that midweek match may just be the thing that my sheet missed that will take the energy out of Juve here - and AS Roma can claim a victory.
Take AS ROMA to win - odds are 2.60 at Bet365 or 2.60 at CLoudbet which seem +EV to me.
