Italian Serie A
2026-03-07 - Cagliari vs Como
A Sports Betting Pick by Cafa
Italy Serie A - Round 28
Unipol Domus, Cagliari, Sardinia, Italy (16,416)
Saturday, 07 March 2026, 15:00 CET
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Cagliari Team News
Cagliari is doing fine, and with a win here and there - although it's elusive for four rounds now - they're maintaining a healthy six-point cushion to the relegation zone. They're actually nearer to the top half of the table, which is five points away.
This is a major success for this roster and this club that was winless from late September to early December, and it looked like Cagliari is going down easily.
Then came an accidental home victory against Roma, courtesy of a red card for the visitors, and this finally got Cagliari rolling. They won four more times in the next nine rounds, and if this side is as streaky as we think they are, now they're in a quiet period as they're winless for four rounds. But they can spring back like crypto at any time.
Como Team News
We've been saying it for a while, Como is going places. The difference now is that we're getting far worse prices that actually aren't worth betting on, and that Como is considered a big favourite yet it remains unreliable. Case in point: a home 1-2 defeat to Fiorentina, among others.
Now we have to be far more careful regarding Como as it isn't as easy as simply betting on a price above 2.00 that we'd get on their matches. Those days are gone and Como is now considered a perennial favourite. You can only get good prices in derbies against top sides nowadays.
Probable Lineups
Cagliari (4-2-3-1): Caprile - Zappa, Mina, Rodriguez, Obert - Adopo, Deiola - Palestra, Gaetano, Folorunsho - S.Esposito. Coach Pisacane.
Como (4-2-3-1): Butez - Smolcic, Kempf, Ramon, Valle - Perrone, Da Cunha - Vojvoda, Paz, Rodriguez - Douvikas. Coach Fabregas.
The Betting Market
We understand Como is doing well, but installing them as a 1.57 favourite on Sardinia is a step too far. This is Inter-level pricing, and Como is not an Inter-level roster. Though they are 5-2-0 in last seven matches on the road, so we'll cut them some slack and avoid the winner market altogether. Caglari is known to do well on their island.
Over 2.5 Goals is priced at 2.00, and Como doesn't really play overs, unless they win 3-0 or 0-3. Cagliari can be lured into a game of chasing goals, as we all know.
Both Teams To Score: YES is priced at 2.05, with a 1.70 for NO.
The Betting Verdict
It's difficult to call this one, and we know Como doesn't give away too much possession, but more likely than not this game will evolve into a shootout where both teams will score and one of them will score the second goal.
Cagliari won't close up as they do against the biggest sides -- you'll notice they're far more likely to play an Over when they face an opponent they think they can go forward against.
That's why we think that, all things considered, this game is likely to go Over and the price is just right to make it an official bet for this game.
The Statistics :
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The Pick :
Cagliari 1-2 Como
