Italian Serie A
2026-03-20 - Genoa vs Udinese
A Sports Betting Pick by Cafa
Italy Serie A - Round 30
Stadio Luigi Ferraris, Genoa, Liguria, Italy (33,205)
Friday, 20 March 2026, 20:45 CET
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Genoa Team News
You won't believe it but since the appointment of Daniele De Rossi this side has only lost to top Italian sides. No relegation candidate or mid-table team has defeated Genoa, home or away. They're known to get a draw against a relegation candidate, sure, but they don't lose. Genoa is a club to bet on at the moment, as they're still not given too much credit by the bookmakers because they are a mid-table side.
One thing you can count on is Genoa to play offensively. This is the only speed they've got under De Rossi, and despite the limited roster they'll always be playing on the front foot. Usually, this will result with at least a goal scored, more often two.
Udinese Team News
Udinese, under Runjaic, is a team that wanted to be what Genoa is now. A limited side, albeit one that runs a lot and covers a lot of the pitch, has tried to play offensively. They aren't doing that well and although they're above Genoa at this moment thay really shouldn't be. Udinese is 11th with 36 points while Genoa is 13th with 33, and, chances are, both could be tied at 36 when this round ends.
Udinese managed to get 10 wins with only 33 goals scored (and 42 conceded), which only goes to show that their main strategy this season is to eliminate draws. They only got six after being known as the draw specialist. This season, they either win or lose, and they like it that way.
Probable Lineups
Genoa (3-5-2): Bijlow - Marcandalli, Ostigard, Vasquez - Norton-Cuffy, Masini, Frendrup, Messias, Ellertsson - Vitinha, Colombo. Coach De Rossi.
Udinese (3-5-2): Okoye - Kristensen, Kabasele, Solet - Ehizibue, Ekkelenkamp, Karlstrom, Atta, Kamara - Davis, Zaniolo. Coach Runjaic.
The Betting Market
As expected, the bookmakers are giving us a seriously low price on the Under of 1.53 and a slightly better price of 1.70 on Both Teams To Score: NO. None of these are a good bet. Both teams are likely to find the net, which is an outcome that is priced at 2.05, and there's a good chance this game will go Over 2.5 Goals, priced at 2.50.
Genoa is a 2.19 favourite, which is a decent price but far too low. Yes, Genoa just won 2-1 at home against Roma and then won 0-2 in Verona, and they'll likely do well here against Udinese, but the price is just wrong. Should be a minimum of 2.30 for us to consider it.
The Betting Verdict
Everything is said with that 2-1 expected score. We expect both teams to score, and we expect Genoa to win it, and obviously the Over 2.5 Goals looks like a good bet if you believe the previous expectations to turn out true. We'll bet on that Over as we must make use of this price that is too high, even though the game might be stuck at two goals. This is a value bet above everything. We're counting on two offensive-minded coaches, De Rossi and Runjaic, to deliver and to not suddenly become cautious.
The Pick :
Genoa 2-1 Udinese
