Italian Serie A
2026-03-21 - Parma vs Cremonese
A Sports Betting Pick by Cafa
Italy Serie A - Round 30
Stadio Ennio Tardini, Parma, Emilia-Romagna, Italy (27,906)
Saturday, 21 March 2026, 15:00 CET
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Parma Team News
Parma doesn't like to lose. They only lost 4 times in the last 14 rounds, and although the 4-1 defeat at Torino in the previous round may seem like a big result, that game simply went wrong in a lot of ways for Parma. Usually they won't concede more than once unless the opponent is Inter or Juventus.
The defensive posture of this team menas they're having a rather difficult time playing as a favourite at home in relegation six-pointers. How is usually looks is that the game is really slow and it eventually ends in a 1-1 or 0-0 draw most of the time. Parma is one of the worst home sides in the league precisely because of their inability to win when expected to -- they only have 3 wins in 14 home matches. For comparison, Cremonese and Pisa have 2 and Verona has 1.
Cremonese Team News
Actually, Cremonese has as many wins on the road as Parma has at home: three. They're known to cause an upset when they're least expected to, like they did to Bologna with a 1-3 not so long ago, but their last six travels have all been defeats. They even lost to Sassuolo and Lecce during this span.
Cremonese started this round in the relegation zone, as the 18th-placed team, three points behind Lecce that is the first safe team. Cremonese will have to reinvent itself and find a playing style that can get some more points, because what they're doing lately in Serie A is simply collecting defeats week after week. If they don't turn this thing around, they're getting relegated.
Probable Lineups
Parma (5-3-2): Corvi - Britschgi, Delprato, Circati, Valenti, Valeri - Bernabe, N.Caviglia, Keita - Strefezza, Pellegrino. Coach Cuesta.
Cremonese (3-5-2): Audero - F.Terracciano, Luperto, Bianchetti - Barbieri, Payero, Thorsby, Maleh, Pezzella - Vardy, Djuric. Coach Nicola.
The Betting Market
Parma is, understandably, the favourite, but the price of 2.11 may be a bit too low for a side that finds it really, really difficult to win against anyone. You'd be betting on Cremonese to implode here and therefore take care of bulk of the work.
Under 2.5 Goals is somewhat surprisingly priced at 1.66, whereas we expected the rock bottom price of 1.53 or even 1.50. For some reason, the bookmakers think there's a decent chance that this game might actually have three goals in it. There is not.
The Both Teams To Score market is really strange, as in an underish game we're getting 1.90 for Yes and 1.90 for No. The Serie A standard would be to offer something like 1.72 on No here, if we're looking at an Under 2.5 price of 1.66.
The Betting Verdict
This will be both a value bet, because of the discrepancy between the price and the probability of the outcome, and a bet that we fully expect to go through. Both Teams To Score: NO is a probable outcome here as the game will be slow and will likely have one goal, maybe two. Whoever scores will likely park the bus in an attempt to protect the lead, and we don't see both teams scoring here.
The Statistics :
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The Pick :
Parma 1-0 Cremonese
