Italian Serie A
2026-04-11 - AC Milan vs Udinese
A Sports Betting Pick by Cafa
Italy Serie A - Round 32
Stadio San Siro, Milano, Lombardy, Italy (80,018)
Saturday, 11 April 2026, 18:00 CET
Free live streaming at Bet365. Funded account required.
AC Milan Team News
Lack of a proper goalscoring threat is the main reason why Milan is failing to win football matches, and it is in fact a minor miracle that a side without strikers even did this well and hoped for a scudetto. Even if the stats don't show it - Milan is the third-best offensive team in the league, tied with Napoli - we've all seen Milan struggle to be a threat in the final third. Each of their goals is a minor masterpiece, simply because that's what it takes, there's no killer striker here to take care of things in an easier fashion.
It will be a major success for Milan to finish 3rd this season, and an even greater one if they manage to reclaim the 2nd spot. It's more than good enough for this ragtag bunch of misfits captained by an adult.
Udinese Team News
Udinese isn't losing much lately, and when they do it's by a single goal. However, we remember the 0-3 home match against AC Milan in which they were pinned down into their own box for 90 minutes. Milan's victory was never in question. It remains to be seen if Milan still has that same fire in the belly or have they stopped playing with ferocity now that the scudetto dreams are gone and the legs are more tired.
Back to Udinese. This is a competent side, and offensive-minded one at that, but the problem with them is that you simply can not translate this into something useful for betting. Udinese won 11 of 31, which is amazing for them, but if you'd blindly bet on Udinese all the time the average price of your winner would have to be 2.85 for you to make a profit. This is not the case. On the other hand, if you try to pick the perfect opportunity for an Udinese win, Udinese will fail you. They win when least expected to.
In other words, there's not much we can do with Udinese other than respect their quality and be cautious when betting against them.
Probable Lineups
AC Milan (4-3-3): Maignan - Athekame, De Winter, Pavlovic, Bartesaghi - Fofana, Modric, Rabiot - Pulisic, Gimenez, Nkunku. Coach Allegri.
Udinese (3-5-2): Okoye - Kristensen, Kabasele, Solet - Ehizibue, Piotrowski, Ekkelenkamp, Karlstrom, Kamara - Davis, Zaniolo. Coach Runjaic.
Santi Gimenez is back for Milan and is announced in the starting lineup, which means that we'll see at least one big goalscoring chance being inexeplicably wasted. Leao is out of form so Nkunku is likely to run out instead. Milan will change to a three-forward formation because of Gimenez.
The Betting Market
The price on Milan is 1.45, which means it's the absolute worst case scenario for us. We won't bet on this unstable side to win, yet on the other hand it doesn't really pay off to do the opposite.
But there's one bet that might substitute for betting on Udinese straight up, and that's the Both Teams To Score: YES that's priced at 2.00. BTTS-No is priced at 1.75.
Over 2.5 Goals is, surprisingly, the more likely outcome at 1.80, while the Under is priced at 2.00.
The Betting Verdict
This Milan is an underish team through and through. Milan only had 13 overs in 31 rounds, which is the seventh-worst percentage in the league, and Udinese is not much better with 15. As anyone who placed a bet on Over 2.5 Goals on Milan this season quickly learned when he turned on the TV, Milan plays at a walking pace and doesn't enter too many goalscoring chances, and when they do, they're squandered. The sloppiness of the defence usually means Milan concedes, and through sheer effort of the will they find a way to score. But this is very, very slow football.
Udinese, after conceding 3 and 4 goals respectively in their most recent two outings against Milan, will assume a more cautious approach and will look to make this game low-scoring. We don't think Milan is winning this, and we don't think the game is going Over.
The Pick :
Milan 1-1 Udinese
