Italian Serie A
2026-04-24 - Napoli vs Cremonese
A Sports Betting Pick by Cafa
Italy Serie A - Round 34
Stadio Diego Armando Maradona, Naples, Campania, Italy (54,726)
Friday, 24 April 2026, 20:45 CET
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Napoli Team News
Napoli's faint hope of challenging Inter for the scudetto is now gone following a draw against Parma and a defeat to Lazio. Furthermore, Napoli conceded the 2nd spot to AC Milan and this right here is the reason why Napoli will still bite in this game - they do want to finish second.
Napoli is the second most-successful home team in the league, just a few points behind Inter, but they achieved this with an incredibly poor goal difference of 26:15 in 16 matches. For comparison, Como and Juventus each scored 34, and Inter scored 47. Even Fiorentina scored 20.
This is exactly what Antonio Conte brings to the table. His teams don't excel in stats, but they display an uncanny ability to get the points when they need them. They work hard and they get the win - but they rarely rout the opponent. Especially when the opponent is a relegation candidate. Napoli is more likely to score big when they host Inter or Atalanta.
Cremonese Team News
If the match is more or less meaningless for Napoli - finishing second isn't that big of a motive in the grand scheme of things - then for Cremonese it's do or die. They're the first team above the relegation zone, tied at 28 points with 18th-placed Lecce that has a worse goal difference by three goals, and every point could ultimately bring survival.
Cremonese won't try to achieve this - winning a point in Naples - by playing offensive football. They will turtle up and defend with intent, and will try to win a point or all three in any way possible. Cremonese is no longer a side that causes major upsets, but they're still perfectly capable of winning a point with 0-0, or winning 0-2 at Parma like they did a few weeks ago.
Probable Lineups
Napoli (3-4-2-1): Milinkovic-Savic - Rrahmani, Buongiorno, Olivera - Politano, McTominay, Lobotka, Gutierrez - De Bruyne, Alisson - Hojlund. Coach Conte.
Cremonese (4-4-2): Audero - F.Terracciano, Baschirotto, Luperto, Pezzella - Floriani, Grassi, Maleh, Vandeputte - Bonazzoli, Sanabria. Coach Giampaolo.
Rrahmani returns for Napoli.
The Betting Market
Napoli is priced at 1.36 and that's actually a solid price, we expected something abysmal such as 1.18. You can get a whopping 1.90 on Napoli to Win To Nil, which is common for them to do.
Over/Under 2.5 Goals is priced at 1.90 each way, while the Both Teams To Score: NO price of 1.57 reveals the true chances of Cremonese in this match. They're not really expected to contribute to the totals.
The Betting Verdict
Time and time again, Antonio Conte's team has shown its low-scoring nature, including the matches against relegation candidates. More often than not, we'd be presented with a football game that's very difficult to watch as it looks like 0-0 and then Napoli somehow manages to score the winning goal. The more Napoli needs the win, the more difficult it is for them to get it - as they squeeze the opponent into their penalty box and therefore have very little space to operate in. It's probable that this will be the case here too.
We don't see Cremonese scoring here, it's not that same counter-attacking team from the first half of the season, and on the other hand we don't think Napoli will score three. Under 2.5 Goals is a good bet, and you may also consider Napoli to Win To Nil at the same price of 1.90 if you prefer that type of bet.
The Statistics :
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The Pick :
Napoli 1-0 Cremonese
