World Cup
2026-06-29 - Germany vs Paraguay
A Sports Betting Pick by Niko
Football; FIFA World Cup 2026: Round of 32
Gillette – Boston, USA
Monday, 29th June 2026 - kickoff 16:30 EST
Germany
Germany topped Group E, but they head into the knockout stage with something to prove.
Julian Nagelsmann's side opened with a commanding 7-1 win over Curacao before edging Ivory Coast 2-1 with a late winner. However, their group campaign ended on a sour note as Ecuador came from behind to claim a 2-1 victory, exposing defensive lapses and careless turnovers.
Jamal Musiala admitted the team must improve quickly, while Joshua Kimmich stressed that Germany cannot afford similar mistakes once the knockout rounds begin.
The attack remains one of the tournament's most dangerous, with Florian Wirtz, Musiala and Kai Havertz creating chances at will, but Germany are still without centre-back Nico Schlotterbeck, who was ruled out of the World Cup with a serious ankle injury.
Coach Nagelsmann is expected to stick with his experienced core despite the setback, believing the defeat to Ecuador arrived at the right time to sharpen the team's focus.
Paraguay
Paraguay have quietly become one of the tournament's surprise knockout qualifiers.
After suffering a heavy 4-1 defeat to the United States, Gustavo Alfaro's side bounced back with a hard-fought 1-0 win over Turkey before earning the point they needed against Australia. Their four-point haul proved enough to advance as one of the best third-placed teams.
Alfaro has built this side around organization, discipline and resilience rather than attacking flair. Paraguay have scored only twice in three matches but have shown they are difficult to break down when protecting a result.
One concern is the absence of experienced winger Miguel Almirón, who serves a suspension following his red card against Turkey, removing one of Paraguay's biggest attacking threats.
The Betting Verdict
On paper, this is Germany's match to lose. Paraguay have defended well enough to frustrate opponents, but they've created very little going forward and now face one of the strongest attacking teams left in the competition.
Germany's defeat to Ecuador should serve as a wake-up call rather than a warning sign. Expect Nagelsmann's side to play with greater urgency, dominate possession and eventually wear Paraguay down.
Unless Germany gift chances through defensive errors, Paraguay may struggle to create enough to cause an upset.
My best bet here is Germany to win in a match with under 3.5 goals.
The Pick :
Germany 2-0 Paraguay
BEST BETTING TIP :
Take Germany to win & under 3.5 goals at odds of 2.05 with SportBet.One
