World Cup
2026-07-05 - Mexico vs England
A Sports Betting Pick by Niko
Football; FIFA World Cup 2026: Round of 16
Estadio Azteca – Mexico City, Mexico
Sunday, 05th July 2026 - kickoff 20:00 EST
Mexico
Mexico head into the Round of 16 full of confidence after a convincing 2-0 win over Ecuador. Julián Quiñones and Raúl Jiménez scored inside the opening half-hour as El Tri secured their first World Cup knockout victory since 1986, ending a four-decade wait.
Mexico have also kept four consecutive clean sheets in this tournament, highlighting just how well organized Javier Aguirre's side have been.
The biggest advantage for Mexico is the venue. Estadio Azteca has been their fortress throughout the tournament, and they have already played four matches there.
The altitude, home crowd, and familiar surroundings have all worked in their favor, while players like Gilberto Mora, Quiñones, and Jiménez have given Mexico quality at both ends of the pitch.
England
England booked their place here with a dramatic 2-1 comeback win over DR Congo.
Harry Kane rescued the Three Lions with two late goals after they trailed for more than an hour, but the performance again exposed defensive weaknesses that have appeared several times during the tournament. It was certainly not an easy win like many of their fans expected
Thomas Tuchel's side have plenty of attacking quality through Kane, Jude Bellingham and Bukayo Saka, but this is a very different challenge.
Playing more than 2,200 meters above sea level at the Azteca brings a physical test England rarely face, with the thinner air affecting stamina, recovery and even the speed of the ball.
The Betting Verdict
If England repeats the performance they showed against DR Congo, they will drop out. I wasn’t impressed by them in that game despite their comeback win. Mexico is a whole different challenge, with a much stronger side.
This match could be one of the best ties of the Round of 16. England may have the stronger squad on paper, but Mexico are in excellent form and have looked extremely comfortable at the Azteca.
England should create chances, but they are unlikely to have things their own way. Mexico's defense has been one of the best in the tournament, while the home crowd and altitude could become bigger factors as the match goes on.
I would be contrarian here and go with Mexico to qualify. This is a unique opportunity they have; they play great football, plus have incredible self-belief. Perhaps it will go to extra time, but they have solid chances of progressing.
The Pick :
Mexico 2-1 England
BEST BETTING TIP :
Take Mexico to qualify at odds of 2.11 with SportBet.One
