Rugby League
2026-08-23 - Sydney Roosters vs Wests Tigers
A Sports Betting Pick by Stu
Rugby League : Australia : NRL 2026
Sunday 23rd August 2026 - KO 1805 AEST
Sydney Roosters
The Roosters have won eight straight matches and took another major scalp last weekend, beating Penrith 12-6 to move to the top of the competition. It was a typically controlled performance: strong defence, excellent kicking and a willingness to grind out a result rather than chase points unnecessarily.
The return of James Tedesco makes an already dangerous side even more difficult to contain. Tedesco missed the previous two matches with an ankle injury but has been named to return at fullback. Cody Ramsey, who performed admirably in his absence, moves back to the interchange.
Perhaps the most intriguing aspect of the Roosters is their halves pairing. Daly Cherry-Evans brings enormous experience and game management alongside Sam Walker, giving the Roosters the unusual combination of an established veteran organiser and one of the game's most naturally creative young halves. That balance has become increasingly important as the Roosters have moved towards the top of the ladder.
The forward pack is equally formidable. Spencer Leniu and Naufahu Whyte provide plenty of aggression through the middle, while Victor Radley remains one of the most influential lock forwards in the competition. Reece Robson's work around the ruck also gives the Roosters excellent control of tempo.
At home, with Tedesco back and the minor premiership firmly in their sights, the Roosters have every reason to approach this match with complete focus.
Wests Tigers
Wests have won only seven matches this season and sit 14th, but their recent performances have been considerably more competitive than their ladder position suggests. Their latest defeat to St George was a 24-22 thriller in which the Tigers scored four tries and remained in the contest until the final moments. That is probably the best way to describe the Tigers season: competitive, improving over previous seasons, but ultimately lacking the polish to finish games.
Jarome Luai remains the obvious attacking focal point. The former Panther has brought experience and creativity to a young side and will need to be at his absolute best here. His ability to challenge the defensive line and create second-phase opportunities gives Wests a chance of producing points even if they are dominated territorially.
Apisai Koroisau is another critical figure. His service from dummy-half and understanding of game tempo will be essential against a Roosters side that will attempt to control possession. If Koroisau can get the Tigers forwards moving quickly, Luai may find enough space to cause problems.
The Tigers have also been dealt a significant blow with Adam Doueihi ruled out and heading for shoulder surgery. Jock Madden replaces him at halfback and is playing his first NRL game since Round 18. There is some good news through the middle, however, with Alex Twal returning after missing the Dragons match. Terrell May, Fonua Pole and Twal will need to absorb enormous pressure from the Roosters powerful forward rotation.
Odds
Roosters are unbackable favourites, $1.09 to $7.50, the line 23.5 points and total points is 52.5
The Betting Verdict
The Sydney Roosters head into Round 25 sitting on top of the NRL ladder and looking every bit like a genuine premiership favourite. Their reward is a Sunday afternoon meeting with a Wests Tigers side that has endured a difficult second half of the season but continues to show plenty of fight. On paper this looks heavily weighted towards the Roosters, but with the Tigers having nothing to lose, this could be more competitive than the enormous betting line suggests.
H2H has the Roosters way out in front, 30-10, however the most recent meeting was a 2 point upset Wests winning last season 28-30. Venue stats are predictably strong for Sydney too, winning 64% at home with the Tigers 18-28 at Allianz.
This is one of those games where there is an obvious result, so lets try and find some value.
I cannot make a serious argument against the Roosters winning. They are sitting first, have won eight straight, have just beaten Penrith, and now welcome back James Tedesco. They have experience everywhere, their defence has become extremely difficult to crack and Cherry-Evans has added another level of composure to their game management.
But 23.5 points is an enormous handicap in the NRL. The danger for anyone taking the Roosters -23.5 is that they simply don't need to win by that much.
The Tigers have demonstrated repeatedly that they can remain competitive even when they aren't winning. Their recent defeat to St George was by just two points, and since their heavy Round 21 defeat to Canberra, Wests have continued to show they are still fighting for the season.
The Roosters have finals football approaching. If they lead 24-6 with 20 minutes remaining, there is little reason for Trent Robinson to turn the game into a track meet. The Roosters have shown throughout their winning run that they are comfortable controlling games rather than unnecessarily chasing points.
That makes the total points market particularly interesting. The line is sitting at 52.5, which requires a relatively high-scoring match. Yet the Roosters most impressive performance last weekend was a 12-6 defensive victory over Penrith. Their ability to squeeze the life out of opponents is precisely what makes them so dangerous heading towards September.
On the other hand, there is one scenario that blows the total apart: an early Roosters avalanche. If Tedesco immediately finds his rhythm and the Tigers young halves struggle to handle the Roosters defensive pressure, this could become 18-0 very quickly. Once the Roosters get in front, their ability to attack tired defensive lines becomes extremely difficult to stop.
Robson v Koroisau - If Koroisau can win the ruck and give Luai time to operate, Wests can make this uncomfortable. If Robson and Radley dominate the middle and force the Tigers onto the back foot, Cherry-Evans and Walker will have a field day.
Ultimately, I think the Roosters win comfortably, but I don't want to lay 23.5 points. The Tigers are too unpredictable, Luai is too talented and the Roosters are too likely to take the foot off the accelerator once the result is effectively secured.
The most likely script is a Roosters-controlled game rather than an all-out demolition. Tedesco's return should give Sydney another attacking dimension, but their biggest weapon remains their defence. If they reproduce anything close to last week's 12-6 performance against Penrith, the Tigers will struggle to get anywhere near the scoreboard required to push this total beyond 52.5. And while history is overwhelmingly against Wests, the Roosters have won 18 of their last 20 against the Tigers Wests have actually won their last two games at Allianz Stadium. That's enough to make me wary of assuming this becomes a 30-plus-point massacre.
Prediction: Roosters by 20.
Secondary: Wests Tigers +23.5
The Pick :
Roosters 32 - Tigers 12
