Rugby League
2026-09-12 - Cronulla Sharks vs North Queensland Cowboys
A Sports Betting Pick by Stu
Rugby League : Australia : NRL Finals 2026
Saturday 12th September 2026 - KO 1950 AEST
Cronulla Sharks
Cronulla are likely frustrated that their home final has been moved from Shark Park to Allianz Stadium. The Sharks had wanted to play at home, but the NRL opted for the larger venue.
Meanwhile, the Sharks have been given a major boost by the return of their big guns. Nicho Hynes, Braydon Trindall, Blayke Brailey and Teig Wilton all return after being rested or unavailable in the final round. Trindall's return is particularly important because he and Hynes have combined for more try assists than any other halves pairing this season and Hynes appears lost without Trindall pulling the Strings.
That makes Cronulla a very different proposition from the side that lost 24–20 to Melbourne last weekend. Hynes is the key. When he is controlling the game and getting the Sharks onto the front foot, Cronulla can score from almost anywhere. Trindall gives them another genuine attacking option, while KL Iro and Ronaldo Mulitalo provide plenty of strike on the edges.
Up front, Addin Fonua-Blake and Cameron McInnes will be critical. If Cronulla can win the middle and give Hynes and Trindall good field position, I think they have enough class to win. The major concern is recent form - Cronulla have lost four of their last five, so despite finishing fifth, they aren't exactly arriving in September flying.
North Queensland Cowboys
The Cowboys are a very dangerous outsider. They have been inconsistent week to week throughout 2026, but there is plenty of experience in this team, and they have some enormous attacking weapons.
Tom Dearden, Scott Drinkwater and Jason Taumalolo give them the ability to control periods of the game, while Jake Clifford provides another kicking and organisational option.
Just like Cronulla, The Cowboys have also received a significant boost with Griffin Neame, Jeremiah Nanai and Zac Laybutt named to return. And there is another huge positive: Reuben Cotter has been cleared by the judiciary and is available to play.
He was initially facing a suspension following a high tackle charge but successfully had the charge downgraded. Cotter's availability is massive because he is exactly the sort of player you want in an elimination final, high work rate, tough defensively and capable of playing big minutes.
Odds
Sharks are deserved favourites, $1.40 to $3.00, the handicap -8.5 points and total combined points 47.5
The Betting Verdict
This is probably the most intriguing of the two elimination finals in Week One. Cronulla finished fifth and North Queensland eighth, but I don't think the ladder tells the whole story here. The Cowboys have enough attacking quality to make this a genuine danger game for the Sharks.
Overall H2H is quite one-sided, Sharks lead by almost 2 to 1, 38-20. The teams have met once this year, North Queensland won at home in a 9 try to 6 very open affair, 46-34. The match has been moved to Allianz as Shark Park is not really up to scratch for a final where both teams have losing records, 19-21 for Cronulla and the Cowboys 9-17.
The key battle is Hynes and Trindall against Dearden and Clifford. Whichever halves combination controls territory is likely to control the game. Cronulla have the more dangerous attacking spine, but North Queensland have enough experience to make this uncomfortable.
I expect Cronulla to win, but I don't think they'll win comfortably. The Sharks have the better squad on paper and the return of Trindall is a huge advantage. However, the Cowboys are exactly the type of team that can make a favourite nervous. If they can keep the score within a converted try at half-time, I think the pressure will really build on Cronulla.
I think the Sharks get through, but I expect a much tighter game than the fifth vs eighth ladder positions suggest. Cronulla's biggest advantage is having Hynes and Trindall back together, while the Cowboys biggest advantage is that they have very little to lose.
I'm leaning towards Cronulla 1–12 rather than a big Sharks victory.
The winner advances to Week 2 to face the loser of Penrith v Roosters.
Sharks by 6
The Pick :
Cronulla Sharks 26-20 North Queensland Cowboys
