Rugby League
2026-09-12 - New Zealand Warriors vs Redcliffe Dolphins
A Sports Betting Pick by Stu
Rugby League : Australia : NRL Finals 2026
Saturday 12th September 2026 - KO 1605 AEST
New Zealand Warriors
The Warriors have earned the right to play this game at home after an outstanding regular season, finishing 2nd on equal points with Penrith and they come into the finals with plenty of momentum. Their biggest advantage isn't simply the quality of their squad - it's Go Media Stadium and the atmosphere that comes with a Warriors finals game in Auckland, which is already a sellout.
The forward pack gives them a tremendous platform. James Fisher-Harris brings the finals experience and aggression, while Mitch Barnett, Kurt Capewell and Jacob Laban provide plenty of work through the middle and edges.
With Tannah Boyd out for the season, Luke Metcalf still recovering from his hamstring injury, Te Maire Martin and Chanel Harris-Tavita are expected to control the Warriors attack. That isn't necessarily a bad thing. Both have plenty of experience, and Martin in particular can control a game very effectively when the Warriors are getting forward.
Taine Tuaupiki is also a fascinating selection at fullback. His performance against Manly was good enough for the coaching staff to retain him there, with Charnze Nicoll-Klokstad remaining on the wing. Leka Halasima is also expected to return, which is a huge inclusion for the Warriors.
Redcliffe Dolphins
The Dolphins are probably the most dangerous third-placed team you could ask for. This is their first ever NRL finals campaign after not only making the top 8, finishing in 3rd position, but they certainly don't look like a team simply happy to be there.
They have plenty of strike across the park, beginning with Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow. The Hammer is exactly the type of player who can turn a tight finals match on its head with one carry, one broken tackle or one piece of individual brilliance. Herbie Farnworth, Selwyn Cobbo and Jamayne Isaako give the Dolphins considerable attacking power out wide, while Isaiya Katoa has quietly developed into a very good controlling half with an excellent kicking game.
The Dolphins are also bringing several players back into their strongest side, including Cobbo, Kodi Nikorima and Kulikefu Finefeuiaki.
The Dolphins clearly believe they can win this competition. Tabuai-Fidow has publicly said the goal is to reach and win the Grand Final, while acknowledging that the side needs to fine-tune its game. That confidence could make them dangerous, but finals football in Auckland is a very different proposition from a regular-season match.
Odds
Warriors are favourites for this one, $1.60 to $2.35, the line 4.5 points and total points is 47.5
The Betting Verdict
This is a huge one for the Warriors. This is a qualifying final, meaning the winner gets a home preliminary final and a week off next week to play again in Week 3, while the loser gets another chance in Week 2. The Warriors finished second and the Dolphins third.
Overall H2H is extremely even, 4-4 and the two sides have already played twice this season, and remarkably each has won by just two points, making this one of the hardest games of the opening finals weekend to confidently tip. The Warriors won at home in round 8, 20-18 and the return fixture in round 17, 26-24. New Zealand win 57% of their home matches while the Dolphins have won just once from 3 attempts in Auckland.
For me, the game will come down to Warriors forwards against the Dolphins defensive middle. If Fisher-Harris, Barnett and Egan can get the Warriors rolling, Martin should have enough time to put the Dolphins under pressure.
But if the Dolphins can contain that opening surge and get their own forwards making easy metres, the pressure starts moving back onto the Warriors. And then there's the Hammer, the Warriors simply cannot give Tabuai-Fidow broken-field opportunities.
The other fascinating factor is that both previous meetings were decided by only two points. That tells me we shouldn't expect one team to blow the other away. The home advantage is significant, the Warriors finished second for a reason, and they have considerably more finals experience than the Dolphins.
This has the feel of a game that could be 6–6, 10–10 or 12–8 with 20 minutes to go, before the Warriors experience and home crowd become decisive. The Dolphins have enough attacking talent to cause enormous problems, but I expect the Warriors pack to eventually establish control. The Auckland crowd should also play a major role in the final 20 minutes.
As for the match result, I believe the Warriors win by 4 and they earn themselves a week off and a home preliminary final. And importantly, because it's a qualifying final, even if the Warriors lose, their season isn't over. The loser gets another chance in Week 2, while the winner gets the enormous prize of a Week 3 home preliminary final.
The Pick :
New Zealand Warriors 22-18 Redcliffe Dolphins
