English Premier
2011-09-24 - Liverpool vs Wolves
A Sports Betting Pick by Auls
Football : English Premier League
Saturday 24 September 2011 - Kickoff 3pm
Liverpool
I think there are a lot of people out there that have been a little overboard in praising Liverpool for their start this season and thankfully that made Tottenham the perfect pick last Sunday. The Reds are bedding in a number of new players as Kenny Dalglish reshapes his squad, but the top 4 remains the ultimate goal for the club.
Liverpool are 8th in the Premier League having picked up 7 points from their opening 5 games this season as they compiled a 2-1-2 record. The Reds have picked up 4 points from their 2 games at Anfield this season, scoring 4 goals and conceding 2 as they beat Bolton and drew with Sunderland.
They have lost back to back Premier League games, but both of these came away from Anfield where they will take the field for the first time since the end of August. Liverpool have lost just 1 of their last 14 games at Anfield in all competitions since losing to Wolves at the end of December 2010.
Glen Johnson and Dan Agger have both been ruled out for this game, but Martin Kelly and Steven Gerrard both made their comebacks from injury in the Carling Cup win at Brighton on Wednesday. Charlie Adam and Martin Skrtal are both available having served their suspensions during the week.
Wolves
The biggest news that came out of Wolves' last game in the Premier League was the fallout from comments made by Joey Barton about Karl Henry and Mick McCarthy. That has kind of hidden the fact that Wolves' great start to the season is beginning to turn into a distant memory if they are not careful.
Wolves dropped down to 10th in the Premier League following their 0-3 home loss to QPR last Saturday, their 2nd straight Premier League loss at home. They, like Liverpool, have picked up 7 points from their opening 5 games in the League this season and they remain unbeaten away from home where they are 1-1-0, scoring 2 goals and conceding 1.
The team have failed to score in their last 3 Premier League games, although they have scored 9 goals in 2 Carling Cup games around those League games. Wolves lost 13 of their 19 League games away from home last season.
Steven Fletcher is out for Wolves, but Roger Johnson and Kevin Foley should be available while a number of first team players will be restored to the side even though they beat Millwall 5-0 on Tuesday night in the Carling Cup.
Head to Head
Liverpool lost at Anfield 0-1 against Wolves last season in a game that effectively sealed Roy Hodgson's fate as manager of the club.
Kenny Dalglish oversaw his first win in his 2nd coming as Liverpool manager 0-3 at Wolves.
Liverpool had won their previous 2 games at Anfield against Wolves.
5 of the last 6 games in the League between the teams has seen 2 goals or less.
Prediction
This could be a tougher afternoon for the home side than the short odds would suggest and I am still not completely comfortable with backing them considering the new players that are in the starting line up.
Liverpool should be able to wear down Wolves, but you just know Mick McCarthy will set his team out to be tough to beat and they have made life fairly difficult for the Reds in the recent meetings between them.
Looking at the markets, the 'Under 2.5 Goals' looks like it has been overpriced and I am not entirely sure why- Liverpool have failed to score in their last 2 Premier League games, albeit away from home, and they failed to score more than 1 against Sunderland at home.
Wolves themselves have failed to score in 3 Premier League games in a row and it could be that goals are tough to come by on Saturday afternoon.
Neither defence has been playing with great credit, but this pick would have been a winner in 5 of 6 League meetings between them, including all 3 times they have played at Anfield and looks to be the call.
The Statistics :
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The Pick :
Liverpool 1-0 Wolves
