NFL Football
2011-10-23 - Kansas City Chiefs at Oakland Raiders
A Sports Betting Pick by FirstDown
United States: NFL Football Week 7
Sunday 23 October 2011 - Kick Off 4:05pm ET
9:05pm (British Standard Time)
Preview
This is an important game in the AFC West that has perhaps been overshadowed by one of the biggest deadline trades in a long time when the Oakland Raiders (4-2) managed to bring in Carson Palmer from Cincinnati, a trade that came about when Jason Campbell went down with a season ending injury last weekend. They face the reigning AFC West Champions, the improving Kansas City Chiefs (2-3).
Let's get the biggest news story of the week out of the way first- Carson Palmer is a big upgrade for this Raiders team at QB and they have really made it clear that they expect to win now after giving away two 1st Round picks over the next couple of years to bring him in from the Bengals. The latest news suggests Palmer will not make his first start for his new team until Week 9.
That last bit of news means it is likely that Kyle Boller will be starting this week and he is going to need to make some plays as the Chiefs Defense is capable of slowing down Darren McFadden and the powerful Raiders rushing game. The Chiefs are holding teams to 3.8 yards per carry and you have to expect they will load the box and force Boller to beat them with his arm.
Kansas City should also come into this game with some confidence as they had won back to back games before their bye week and Matt Cassel is finally playing a little more like the player he was for much of last season, and his partnership with Dwayne Bowe has reignited. Cassel should get plenty of success this week with Bowe and Steve Breaston against a Raiders team that has allowed 283 yards per game through the air.
Even though Kansas City are missing Jamaal Charles, I also expect their running back committee to be able to move the chains on the ground and also keep Cassel in short and manageable situations. The Raiders are giving up almost 5 yards per carry on the ground too so I am beginning to wonder how they are going to stop the Chiefs consistently.
The one thing Oakland will be able to do is get pressure on Cassel with their pass rush, but if the Raiders are not stopping the run, that could become irrelevant too.
Head to Head
Kansas City may have won the AFC West last season, but Oakland did beat them in both meetings to improve to 5-2 in the last 7 games in the series.
Oakland's win at home last season saw them improve their recent home record to 1-7 against the spread against the Chiefs.
The road team is 19-6-1 against the spread in the last 26 games in the series.
The underdog has won the last 8 games against the spread in the series.
Oakland are 5-1 against the spread this season, Kansas City are 3-2.
Other Interesting Trends
Oakland are 4-1 against the spread in their last 5 games as the home favourite of between 3.5 and 10 points. However, the Raiders are just 3-12 against the spread in their last 15 games as the home favourite.
The Raiders have won their last 8 games against the spread against teams from the AFC West. They are 5-20 against the spread in their last 25 games at home against teams with losing records.
Kansas City are 10-4 against the spread in their last 14 games as the road underdog. They are 1-5 against the spread in their last 6 games against teams from the AFC West.
Prediction
The news that Carson Palmer is unlikely to start has seen the spread shorten considerably, but you can still get 5 points at Ladbrokes, and I am going to back the Kansas City Chiefs to cover with those points helping for the following reasons:
First, Kansas City play the run pretty well and that means the pressure is on Kyle Boller to make the throws with his arm to keep the chains moving, something I am not comfortable with... It is also clear the Raiders are not so comfortable with that considering how much they gave away to bring in Palmer.
Second, Sebastian Janikowski looks set to miss this game. The FG kicker has a huge leg and the Raiders will not be able to get him kicking from midfield, meaning they need to run more plays just to grab 3 points and could be forced to punt the ball more often than usual.
Third, Kansas City had been playing well before their bye week and they have enough weapons to make plays against this Raiders Defense.
Fourth, Oakland may be looking ahead to their bye week after an emotional couple of weeks since Al Davis passed away and they may just come off a little flat without their starting QB.
Fifth, Kansas City have an exceptional record in Oakland over the last few seasons.
The Statistics :
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The Pick :
Oakland Raiders 24-20 Kansas City Chiefs
FIXED ODDS BETTING TIP :
I'll back the Kansas City Chiefs +5 Points @ 1.90
