NFL Football
2011-10-30 - Jacksonville Jaguars at Houston Texans
A Sports Betting Pick by FirstDown
United States: NFL Football Week 8
Sunday 30 October 2011 - Kick Off 1pm ET
5pm (British Standard Time)
Preview
The AFC South is usually dominated by the Indianapolis Colts, but a Manning-less Colts have yet to win a game and that meant the other 3 teams in the Division really felt they could make serious waves this season. So far, the Houston Texans (4-3) lead the way and could really tighten their grip if they can beat another Division rivals in the form of the Jacksonville Jaguars (2-5).
Jacksonville should come in jumping after an intense Defensive effort saw them beat the Baltimore Ravens in an ugly game on Monday Night Football. They were also aided by good special teams as Josh Scobee kicked 3 bombs, all from 50 + yards away as the Jaguars secured a 12-7 win and put themselves back in contention in the AFC South.
While the Jags were securing a big win, Houston themselves were doing the same as they annihilated the Tennessee Titans on the road to move to 2-0 within the Division too. Houston have been seriously hurt on both sides of the ball, with Daniel Manning the latest to go down with a serious injury following Andre Johnson and Mario Williams.
It will be interesting to see how Houston go without Johnson this week as they face a Jaguars team that has played the pass very well this season and one that can create a very effective pass rush. You have to think the Texans will look to use Arian Foster and Ben Tate to rush the ball and keep the chains moving, although the Jags showed what they can do against the ground game when limiting Ray Rice last week.
Jacksonville's Defense has put in 2 very solid performances in consecutive weeks against Pittsburgh and Baltimore and I have to think they will continue with their aggressive schemes to blitz the QB and disrupt the receivers routes.
I also think we are going to see a healthy does of Maurice Jones-Drew, even if he was suffering from fumble-itis on Monday Night Football. Houston have not played the run that well this season, and I don't think they will be able to sell out against the run as they are suffering some big injuries in their Secondary and pass rush that will be punished, even by a rookie QB.
Blaine Gabbert has really struggled and has been the worst of the starting rookie QBs so far, although you can see signs that he can turn things around with his big arm. I don't think Gabbert will be getting much success through the air this week unless Jones-Drew keeps the team in short and manageable situations as that may make the Defense cheat up to the line of scrimmage and give Gabbert the chance to hurt a beaten up Secondary.
Head to Head
Jacksonville have not lost back to back games to Houston since 2006, but they have lost their last game against the Texans when losing by 17 points here in January.
Houston won that game against the spread too, but they had lost their previous 3 games against the Jags, both straight up and against the spread.
The Texans are 4-1 in their last 5 home games against the Jaguars, both straight up and against the spread.
Houston are 4-3 against the spread this season, Jacksonville are 3-4.
Other Interesting Trends
Houston are 4-1 against the spread in their last 5 games as the home favourite of between 3.5 and 10 points. They are 1-6 against the spread in their last 7 games following a straight up win.
Jacksonville have lost their last 4 games against the spread as the road underdog of between 3.5 and 10 points. The Jags are 2-8 against the spread in their last 10 games playing on Sunday following a Monday night game.
The Jaguars are 7-1 against the spread in their last 8 games as the Divisional underdog of 7 points or more.
Road underdogs of 6.5 points or more are 26-13 against the spread in the week before their bye.
Prediction
I am going to back the Jacksonville Jaguars to put in their 3rd consecutive stellar Defensive performance and cover the spread for the following reasons:
First, Jacksonville have a strong Defense that will be facing an Andre Johnson-less Offense and 9.5 points is a lot to give them in this game.
Second, only 1 team this season (the New York Jets) can genuinely say they have scored more than 23 points against this Defense this season so the Offense won't need to score a lot of points to cover the spread.
Third, Josh Scobee has a big leg meaning the Offense will be able to put up points from a longer distance than many other teams so they may not need to punt from positions others would.
Fourth, there are a couple of big trends that favours the Jaguars to go ahead and cover this game.
The Statistics :
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The Pick :
Houston Texans 23-16 Jacksonville Jaguars
