Champions League
2011-12-06 - Borussia Dortmund vs Marseille
A Sports Betting Pick by Auls
Football: European Champions League
Tuesday 6 December 2011 - Kick Off 7:45pm
This game is live on TV
Borussia Dortmund
Borussia Dortmund are picking up the pace in the Bundesliga and have put themselves in a position to challenge for the title they won last season. While things are in a good position back home, Dortmund know their Champions League destiny is no longer in their own hands following the first 5 games of the Group Stages.
A 2-1 loss at Arsenal last time out means Dortmund have only picked up 4 points from their opening games of the Group. The team are 3 points behind Marseille and must win either 3-0 or by 4 clear goals and also hope Olympiacos are beaten by Arsenal. Suffice to say, it is a big ask for Dortmund to qualify for the last 16, while any place in Europe will only be achieved thanks to a big win in this game.
The team have only lost 1 of their last 9 games in all competitions, that being the close one in London. Dortmund have won 6 in a row at home in all competitions, scoring at least 2 goals in 5 of those wins, while the defence has been strong enough to concede just 1 goal in those 6 wins.
Marcel Schmelzer misses the game through suspension, while there are a few other injuries in the squad to deal with.
Marseille
Marseille are moving up the table in their domestic League, but they already find themselves with a big fight on their hands if they are to qualify for the Champions League next season. This game represents a chance for them to qualify for the next stage of this years competitions, and they could already have done so if not for a poor result on Match Day 5.
Marseille were beaten 0-1 at home by Olympiacos last time out, a result which leaves their qualification in the balance, even if their destiny is still controlled by themselves. If Marseille had beaten Olympiacos, they would already have qualified for the last 16 along with Arsenal, but now have to at least match the result the Greek team achieves with Arsenal and at least avoid a hammering here.
The team have won back to back games since dropping consecutive defeats at the end of November. Marseille will at least come into this one with some confidence as they have only lost 1 of their last 6 away games in all competitions, although a draw may not be good enough for them here if Olympiacos beat Arsenal.
Didier Deschamps' side also have a number of injury concerns with the likes of Andre-Pierre Gignac, Jeremy Morel and Stephane Mbia all missing this week.
Head to Head
This will be the first competitive meeting between the teams in Germany following Marseille's 3-0 win over Dortmund earlier in the Group Stage.
Prediction
This should be an attacking game as neither team can really sit back and hope and must press their chances if they are to go any further in Europe this season.
Borussia Dortmund have already made it clear that they need to score a few goals and will go on the offensive from kick-off, while Marseille cannot rely on Arsenal winning in Greece to secure their own passage to the last 16 and will also need goals to earn the point to progress.
With both sides expected to go forward, I think we will see a few goals in this one, more so considering both sides are better attacking than they are defending.
I was a little surprised to see the 'Over 2.5 Goals' priced up just short of odds-against, as I think both sides will continue going forward throughout the contest, leaving more and more gaps to be exploited as we get down the stretch.
The Statistics :
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The Pick :
Borussia Dortmund 2-1 Marseille
FIXED ODDS BETTING TIP :
I'll back the Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.95
