NBA Basketball
2012-02-08 - Miami Heat at Orlando Magic
A Sports Betting Pick by FirstDown
United States: NBA Basketball
Wednesday 8 February 2012 - Tip Off 7pm ET
Midnight (British Standard Time)
Preview
This is a huge game in the Eastern Conference as two of the leading contenders meet in an Inter-State clash. The Miami Heat (19-6) are still the favourites to be playing in the NBA Finals for a second year in a row, while the Orlando Magic (15-10) continue blowing hot and cold.
Orlando have played well at times, but have been going on long winning and losing streaks to remain in the mix in the Eastern Conference, but unlikely to be challenging either the Chicago Bulls or the Miami Heat for supremacy.
Dwight Howard continues to play hard and is coming off a 33 point, 14 rebound effort in the loss to the LA Clippers last time out. Howard is averaging 24.4 points and 13.7 rebounds over his last 7 games, but he has not had the best of time against Miami. In fact, Howard has only surpassed 19 points against the Heat in 1 of his last 8 clashes against them.
This does look like a tough test for the Magic as they are coming up against a Miami team that has been playing to a high level for much of the season. The Heat have now won 11 of their last 13 games after hammering Cleveland at home last night, although they will now be testing their 7-4 record on the road with their next 6 games being away from home.
LeBron James and Dwyane Wade both played well against the Magic last season- James averaged 30 points per game, while Wade averaged 21.5 points per game and both are in good form at the moment and will expect to reach those tallies at a minumum again.
Head to Head
Orlando and Miami split the 4 regular season games last season, each winning once on the road, both straight up and against the spread.
Miami are just 6-14-1 against the spread in the last 21 games in the series.
Orlando are 7-2-1 against the spread in their last 10 games at home against the Heat.
Orlando are 5-8 against the spread at home this season, Miami are 4-7 on the road.
The Magic are 4-3 against the spread as the underdog, Miami are 10-14 as the favourite.
Other Interesting Trends
Orlando are 21-8-1 against the spread in their last 30 home games as the underdog of between 0.5 and 4.5 points.
They are 6-1-1 against the spread in their last 8 games as the home underdog.
Miami are 5-2 against the spread in their last 7 games as the road favourite of between 0.5 and 4.5 points.
However, they are just 2-7 against the spread in their last 9 games against teams from the Eastern Conference.
Prediction
I am going to back the Miami Heat to win this game and cover the spread for the following reasons:
First, the team have played harder against the better teams in the Eastern Conference, making a point about their ability to win this Conference again.
Second, Orlando have been mired with inconsistency and I think they may have a bit of trouble of keeping up with the Heat with the way they have played in recent games.
Third, Miami have struggled in this spot of playing on back to back nights this season, but I think they tried to rectify that last night by giving their starters plenty of rest.
Fourth, I think Miami will be fully focused on this game as it comes between two 'easy' games so I will look for a big effort from them tonight.
The Pick :
Orlando Magic 91-98 Miami Heat
