NBA Basketball
2012-04-03 - Philadelphia 76ers at Miami Heat
A Sports Betting Pick by FirstDown
United States: NBA Basketball
Tuesday 3 April 2012 - Tip Off 7:30pm ET
12:30am (British Standard Time)
Preview
Recent bad form has become more than just a little concern for the Miami Heat (37-14) especially as we are only a couple of weeks away from the start of the Play Offs. The team are just taking recent performances in their stride as they get ready to start a 5 game homestand against some of the better teams in the NBA.
The first of those will be against the slumping Philadelphia 76ers (29-23) who lost their lead in the Atlantic Division. They remain in line for an Eastern Conference Play Off spot, but they don't really want to be finishing in the 7th or 8th spot and have to face either Miami or Chicago in the First Round.
Miami have really begun to struggle on the road recently, going just 3-7 in their last 10 games, but they remain a totally different proposition at home where they have won 15 straight games. The Heat have won those 15 games by an average of 11 points per game and it is their longest home winning run since 2005.
The Heat were beaten easily at the Boston Celtics on Sunday night and need to rediscover what made them so effective for much of the season. The defence is struggling to get the job done, while the poor play from the Point Guard position has allowed them to be dominated while not getting the proper looks on the offensive side of the court.
Poor shooting from the perimeter is also hurting Miami and there are some concerns with what Joel Anthony is offering them on the offensive side of the ball.
Philadelphia have begun to struggle in recent weeks as their early season form has become a distant memory. They have been blown out in their last 2 games on the road, although they have bounced back from the last of those with an important win over the Atlanta Hawks.
The 76ers have lost 9 of their last 12 on the road and that will be a problem for them down the stretch as 10 of their last 14 games are on the road. They currently are a game behind Boston in the race for the Atlantic Division and just 2.5 games ahead of the New York Knicks with Play Off seeds being decided in the last stretch of the season.
Head to Head
Miami have won the last 10 regular season meetings between the teams, taking those contests by an average of 12.4 points per game.
They have also won 16 of the last 18 meetings between the teams in Miami.
The Heat have won all 3 games this season, both straight up and against the spread, and they are 6-3 against the spread in the last 9 games in the series.
Miami are 12-11 against the spread at home this season, Philadelphia are 10-13 on the road.
The Heat are 24-25 against the spread as the favourite, Philadelphia are 4-10 as the underdog.
Other Interesting Trends
Miami are 8-3 against the spread in their last 11 games as the home favourite of between 5 and 10.5 points.
Philadelphia are 2-5 against the spread in their last 7 games as the road underdog given between 5 and 10.5 points.
They are 7-19 against the spread in their last 26 games against a team with a winning record.
Prediction
I am going to take the Miami Heat to win this game and cover the spread for the following reasons:
First, they have dominated the series against Philadelphia recently, while they have been winning their home games with a little more room to spare.
Second, Philadelphia have really struggled when playing the better teams in the NBA, going 1-4 against the spread in the second half of the season against those with winning records.
Third, the 76ers haven't been good as the underdog this season, going just 4-10 against the spread, while they are just 2-7 against the spread when attempting to avenge a home loss.
Fourth, Miami have bounced back from heavy defeats for most of the season, going 4-1 against the spread when losing their last game by double-digits.
Fifth, the Heat are very good in this spot, going 5-1 against the spread as the home favourite of between 6.5 and 9 points.
My biggest concern is that the Heat are hosting Oklahoma City tomorrow night and they could look ahead to that, but they are 6-2 against the spread in games played on the first of back to back nights scheduled, while Philadelphia are 1-6 in the same spot.
The Pick :
Miami Heat 96-86 Philadelphia 76ers
