NBA Basketball
2012-04-07 - Portland T-Blazers at Milwaukee Bucks
A Sports Betting Pick by FirstDown
United States: NBA Basketball
Saturday 7 April 2012 - Tip Off 8:30pm ET
1:30am (British Standard Time)
Preview
Both of these teams are just on the outside of the Play Off berths in their respective Conferences and need to have a strong end to the regular season if they are to sneak in. The Milwaukee Bucks (27-28) are a game behind the New York Knicks in the East, while the Portland Trail Blazers (27-29) are 3.5 games behind Denver in the West.
Milwaukee have been very good in recent weeks, going 12-4, while Monta Ellis is beginning to find his feet following his trade from the Golden State Warriors. Ellis had been averaging just 16.6 points per game since coming over to Milwaukee, but he has scored a combined 55 points in his last 2 contests.
The Bucks did just enough to beat Charlotte last night, but Head Coach Scott Skiles was very upset with the performance as they struggled from the field and he admitted that he hoped his players were 'disgusted' as they left the Arena.
Portland will be full of confidence after an impressive Overtime win at the Dallas Mavericks last night to keep their hopes of a Play Off berth alive. The Trail Blazers had been struggling for consistency recently as they recorded back to back wins for the first time since January last night.
The two key players for the Trail Blazers are likely to be LaMarcus Aldridge, who is averaging 24.5 points and 9.3 rebounds in his last 6 games, and Wesley Matthews who has averaged 20.3 points and 6.7 rebounds in his last 3 games against Milwaukee.
Head to Head
This is the second meeting between the teams this season after Milwaukee won by 29 points at the Rose Garden.
Portland were 7-1 against the spread in the previous 8 games of the series before this season, going 3-1 here in Milwaukee.
Milwaukee are 11-15 against the spread at home this season, Portland are 11-16 on the road.
Milwaukee are 13-13 against the spread as the favourite, Portland are 7-13 as the underdog.
Other Interesting Trends
Milwaukee are just 2-8 against the spread in their last 10 games as the home favourite of between 0.5 and 4.5 points.
However, they are 9-2 against the spread in their last 11 games against a team with a losing record.
Portland are 5-16 against the spread in their last 21 games as the road underdog given between 0.5 and 4.5 points.
They are 5-15 against the spread in their last 20 games following a straight up win.
Prediction
I am going to back the Milwaukee Bucks to close the gap on the New York Knicks again and cover the spread for the following reasons:
First, Portland had an emotional win last night in Overtime at Dallas and have a big game with Houston on deck and they could overlook this game against a non-Conference opponent.
Second, the Trail Blazers have also struggled on the road this season and also in games where they are expected to lose and that should give the edge to the motivated home team.
Third, Milwaukee seem to enjoy playing teams with losing records and they seem to gain confidence from those games. They also seem to take these games very seriously and I expect a better performance from the one last night as the Head Coach, Scott Skiles was furious with the effort yesterday.
The Pick :
Milwaukee Bucks 103-95 Portland T-Blazers
FIXED ODDS BETTING TIP :
I'll back the Milwaukee Bucks -4.5 Points @ 1.92
