MLB Baseball
2012-04-10 - St Louis Cardinals at Cincinnati Reds
A Sports Betting Pick by Auls
United States: Major League Baseball
Tuesday 10 April 2012 - First Pitch 7:10pm ET
12:10am (British Standard Time)
Preview
The St Louis Cardinals (4-1) have made a fast start to their defence of the World Series crown, especially with the bats already finding their range despite the absence of Albert Pujols. They continue their opening series with the Cincinnati Reds (2-2) having won Game 1 7-1 last night.
The Cardinals have outscored teams 31-16 over the first 5 games they have played this season, but even manager Mike Matheny admits it will be tough for the batters to continue with their current form. St Louis have already banged out 9 Home Runs, including 3 yesterday.
Kyle Lohse is going to be sent to the mound for his second start of the season and he earned the decision in a 4-1 win over Miami in his first start. The pitcher has gone 2-3 in his last 7 starts against his former team with a 3.86 ERA.
He will expect to have some more success tonight as he faces a Cincinnati team that has struggled to find any consistency with their own batting. The Reds are just 0.218 on the plate as a team this season, although they have put up 14 runs in their first 4 games this season.
They will counter with Mike Leake who will be making his first start of the season. Leake went 12-9 last season with a 3.86 ERA, but he did improve that to 3.36 in his last 20 starts after a tough opening to 2011.
Leake has struggled in Spring Training, but he has been given this opportunity to start despite there being enough of a rest for ace Johnny Cueto. He is 1-1 in 3 games against the Cardinals, 2 of those he has started, but he will need to improve his 6.97 ERA from those games.
Head to Head
Cincinnati won the season series between the two teams 9-6 last season.
The Reds finished 5-1 in games played between the teams here.
Other Interesting Trends
Cincinnati are just 5-13 in their last 18 games as the underdog.
They are 4-1 in their last 5 home games with Mike Leake as the starter.
St Louis are 4-1 in their last 5 games as the road favourite.
They are 8-3 in their last 11 games following a Quality Start for Kyle Lohse in his last start.
Prediction
I am going to take a risk in this game and back the St Louis Cardinals to cover the run line for the following reasons:
First, St Louis have been really hot from the plate in the early part of the season and I want to try and ride that momentum coming into this one. On the contrary, Cincinnati have struggled to find the same level of consistency.
Second, Mike Leake has had a tough time against the Cardinals in the past and his 6.97 ERA will not cut it against St Louis in their current form at the plate.
The Pick :
Cincinnati Reds 4-7 St Louis Cardinals
FIXED ODDS BETTING TIP :
I'll back the St Louis Cardinals - 1.5 Runs @ 2.60
