NBA Basketball
2012-04-19 - Chicago Bulls at Miami Heat
A Sports Betting Pick by FirstDown
United States: NBA Basketball
Thursday 19 April 2012 - Tip Off 8pm ET
1am (British Standard Time)
Preview
The Miami Heat (44-17) are unlikely to catch the Chicago Bulls (47-15) in the race for the Number 1 seed in the Eastern Conference, but they will not want to ensure that happens with another loss to their biggest rivals in getting back to the NBA Finals.
Miami beat Toronto last night but they rested Dwyane Wade, Chris Bosh and Ronny Turiaf in preparation for this game as they look to get a bit of revenge on Chicago after an OT loss last week in the Windy City. The Heat will be motivated by the fact that they will not want criticisms going into the Play Offs and will want to protect home court.
They may find life a little easier as Derrick Rose looks set to miss out for Chicago, although that has not stopped the Bulls beating the Heat once already in this situation, while Rose was almost a non-factor in the Bulls win last week.
Chicago rested Rose and Luol Deng in a shock defeat to Washington last time out, although the latter is expected back for this game.
Miami themselves should have all the big guns out on the court, including the virtually ever-present LeBron James who could join an elite set of names if he is named the regular season MVP for a third time in his career. James is the favourite to beat Kevin Durant to the award, with some suggesting he will only lose if the writers are 'bored' of giving it to him.
James will look to further his credentials in this game as he is averaging 33.3 points per game against the Bulls this season as the Heat look to square the season series.
Head to Head
Chicago have won 2 of the 3 meetings between the teams, and they have covered the spread in all of those games.
Miami have actually won their last 3 home games against the Bulls, 2 of those against the spread too, since a regular season defeat last March.
Miami are 16-14 against the spread at home this season, Chicago are 20-11 on the road.
Miami are 29-29 against the spread as the favourite, Chicago are 4-1 as the underdog.
Other Interesting Trends
Miami are 8-3 against the spread in their last 11 games against a team that has won at least 60% of their road games.
They are 12-5 against the spread in their last 17 games against teams with winning records on the road.
Chicago are 13-6 against the spread in their last 19 games as the road underdog being given between 5 and 10.5 points.
Prediction
I think this game means a lot more to Miami than it does to Chicago and I am going to take them to cover the spread for the following reasons:
First, Miami have been very good at home against the Bulls recently and will want to get one over on their main rivals in the East after that OT loss last week.
Second, Chicago are likely to tie up the Number 1 seed in the Eastern Conference even if they lose tonight so I think they will not want to risk any player that is dealing with an injury. I don't think Derrick Rose will play and I think Luol Deng will be limited.
The Pick :
Miami Heat 96-88 Chicago Bulls
FIXED ODDS BETTING TIP :
I'll back the Miami Heat - 6 Points @ 1.95
