NBA Basketball
2012-04-20 - Golden State at Dallas Mavericks
A Sports Betting Pick by FirstDown
United States: NBA Basketball
Friday 20 April 2012 - Tip Off 8:30pm ET
1:30am (British Standard Time)
Preview
The Dallas Mavericks (35-28) had to recover from a fourth quarter deficit when beating the Houston Rockets in their last game and that, coupled with another Rockets loss last night in New Orleans, has secured the Mavericks a place in the post-season. They need a couple more wins to lock themselves in the Number 6 seed in the Western Conference, although they are going to be in for a tough First Round series in the Play Offs anyway.
They conclude their home regular season with a game against the slumping Golden State Warriors (22-39) who have nothing to play for and are already looking forward to a off-season break.
Golden State will be missing a number of key players as David Lee, Stephen Curry, Andris Biedrins and Nate Robinson although the latter two may return.
That means it looks like the Warriors are going to have to start 4 rookies as they did in a double-digit loss to the LA Lakers last time out.
While Dallas are in to the Play Offs, it is unlikely that Rick Carlisle will want them to lose some momentum now, especially considering they have a couple of tough road games at Eastern Conference teams to end the season. However, I am sure some of the starters will get extended rest down the stretch, although they will want to send their fans home happy here.
Head to Head
The teams have split two games already this season, both played in Golden State.
Dallas have won 9 of their last 10 home games in the series, including a 28 point blow out last March.
Dallas are 17-15 against the spread at home this season, Golden State are 19-11 on the road.
Dallas are 21-23 against the spread as the favourite, Golden State are 26-21 as the underdog.
Other Interesting Trends
Dallas are 6-18 against the spread in their last 24 games as the home favourite of 11.5 points or more.
Golden State are 3-11 against the spread in their last 14 games following a double-digit home loss.
Prediction
The pressure is certainly off the Dallas Mavericks as their Play Off position was confirmed last night, but I still think they will want to sign off their regular season at home with an impressive performance. I will take the Mavericks to cover the spread for the following reasons:
First, I think Golden State have been in 'tank' mode for a little while now and they will be a very young team taking the court and could be out-hustled by the veteran reigning Champions.
Second, the Warriors are going to be short-handed tonight as they are dealing with many injuries to their rotation.
Third, Dallas blew out the Golden State team last season in their last meeting here.
The Pick :
Dallas Mavericks 118-102 Golden State
