NBA Basketball
2012-04-24 - Miami Heat at Boston Celtics
A Sports Betting Pick by FirstDown
United States: NBA Basketball
Tuesday 24 April 2012 - Tip Off 8pm ET
1am (British Standard Time)
Preview
The Miami Heat (46-18) need a miracle to grab the Number 1 seed in the Eastern Conference at this late stage of the regular season, but they won't be bothered by that now as they look set to rest players down the stretch with a week until the Play Offs begin.
They face the Boston Celtics (37-27) who have also been resting players as the Number 4 seed in the Eastern Conference is cemented. However, the funny nature of the NBA means they still need to win, and Atlanta to lose, if the Celtics want home court advantage in the First Round of the Play Offs.
Doc Rivers has insisted that it doesn't matter if the team pick up home court advantage and so he has not been afraid to rest players to keep the freshness in the legs of this veteran group. Boston last played on Friday night in a loss to the Atlanta Hawks, but rested Paul Pierce, Kevin Garnett, Rajon Rondo and Ray Allen.
Pierce and Garnett are expected back for this game, while Allen has been definitely ruled out and will be replaced by Avery Bradley in the line up. Rondo will be a game time decision as the Celtics finish with two home games.
Miami themselves rested Dwyane Wade, Chris Bosh, LeBron James, Mario Chalmers and Ronny Turiaf for a loss to the lowly Washington Wizards that effectively ended their chances of finishing as the Number 1 seed in the Eastern Conference.
All but James were also missing in the win over the slumping Houston Rockets and it seems that Eric Spoelstra will be resting players down the stretch, indicating he will decide at game time for the final two games.
Bosh is expected to be given some playing time, either tonight or Thursday, just to get a little bit of rhythm back after missing 4 games, but Wade is likely to sit until the Play Offs after dislocating a finger.
Head to Head
Miami won the first regular season meeting between the two this season, but have been beaten in the latter two, both coming in this month.
Boston are 7-1, both straight up and against the spread, in their last 8 home games against the Heat.
Boston are 16-14-1 against the spread at home this season, Miami are 14-17 on the road.
Boston are 18-20 against the spread as the favourite, Miami are 1-2 as the underdog.
Other Interesting Trends
Boston are 8-2-1 against the spread in their last 11 games at home.
Miami are 1-4 against the spread in their last 5 games against a team with a winning record at home.
Prediction
I am going to take the Boston Celtics to grab the win against the short-handed Miami Heat for the following reasons:
First, this game does mean more to Boston, regardless of what they say, and they should have a few more big guns in the line up than Miami.
Second, Miami have struggled to revenge a home loss so far this season, going a surprisingly 3-5 against the spread in that spot.
Third, Boston have dominated the recent home games in the series against the Heat, both straight up and against the spread.
Fourth, the Celtics have a 12-4 record against the spread when playing teams from Miami's Divison, including a 2-1 mark against the Heat.
The Pick :
Boston Celtics 96-87 Miami Heat
BEST BETTING TIP :
I'll back the Boston Celtics - 7 Points @ 1.95
