Champions League
2012-04-25 - Real Madrid vs Bayern Munich
A Sports Betting Pick by Auls
Football: European Champions League Semi Final Second Leg
Wednesday 25 April 2012 - Kick Off 7:45pm
Bayern Munich lead 2-1 from the First Leg
This game is live on TV
Real Madrid
Jose Mourinho was appointed as manager of Real Madrid manager in the Summer of 2010 with the sole goal of knocking Barcelona off their perch as the dominant force in Spain and Europe. He has virtually achieved the first of those aims with Real Madrid taking control of La Liga, while they now have a chance to move into the Final of the Champions League for the first time since winning the competition in 2002.
It was an impressive 1-2 win for Real at the Nou Camp that has given them a 7 point lead in La Liga with 4 games left to play. Now they have to overturn a 1-2 deficit from the first leg of this Semi Final, but they will feel comfortable having won all 5 of their home games in the Champions League this season, scoring at least 3 goals in each game and winning each by a 3 goal margin at a minimum.
Real Madrid have won 3 of their last 4 games in all competitions, the only exception being the loss at the Allianz Arena last week. They have won 9 of their last 11 games at home in all competitions, although the two exceptions have come in their last 5 games as they have drawn with Malaga and Valencia. Real Madrid have won 9 of their 10 home games in the Champions League under Mourinho, all those wins coming by at least 2 goals.
Lassana Diarra and Ricardo Carvalho are both training again, but will not be in the squad for this game.
Bayern Munich
It was always the ambition of Bayern Munich that they would be playing in their home stadium in the Champions League Final this season and they are now a game away from doing so. They can thank Mario Gomez and his last minute winner in the first leg, which has given them the slight edge in the tie, but Jupp Heynckes will be aware of the size of the task still at hand.
Bayern Munich effectively lost the Bundesliga last week before the first leg and that meant they could rest some of those players that will be an important part of the team that takes the field on Wednesday. Borussia Dortmund were actually confirmed as Champions this week, despite Bayern's win at Werder Bremen. The team are 3-1-2 away from home in the Champions League this season.
They have now gone 10-2-1 in their last 13 games in all competitions after the win at Bremen over the weekend. Bayern have won 4 of their last 6 games in all competitions, their only defeat coming at Borussia Dortmund in that time. The team's 0-2 win at Marseille in the last Round of the Champions League is their only one in their last 4 in this competition.
Heynckes rested a few of his bigger names over the weekend, with Arjen Robben missing out completely and Mario Gomez and Franck Ribery coming off the bench for cameos. Others like Jerome Boateng, Holger Badstuber and Philip Lahm will also be restored to the starting line up.
Head to Head
Bayern Munich continued their successes against Real Madrid at home last week, the win in the first leg meaning they have won 9 of their 10 home games against the Spanish giants.
Real Madrid have won the last 3 times they have been visited by Bayern, including a 3-2 win here in the last 16 of the 2007 Champions League.
Real have won 6 of their 9 previous home games against Bayern, with the Bavarians winning on 2 occasions.
This is the fifth time these sides would have met in a knock-out Round after the first leg was played in Germany- Real Madrid have gone through 3 times, including twice when losing the first leg.
Prediction
Last week, I wrote in my preview that I expected goals when the teams were drawn together and, while it took almost the last kick, the game in Munich did not disappoint as both teams attacked for much of the game looking for goals.
I can't imagine this one being much different, but the prices have now dropped from a shade odds on to being short odds on and there doesn't look a lot of value on even going higher for the Over 3.5 goals option.
I think both managers are expecting the opposition to get on the scoresheet and you can't really blame them for thinking that way with the amount of attacking talent on display on both sides.
That makes me think that neither side will sit back if they take the lead, unless it is late in the game, and so I do believe goals are going to be on display, but I have already said the prices look short.
However, Ladbrokes are offering 2.40 on Real Madrid to win this game and at least 3 goals to be scored in the game and that looks a touch of value. Real should be full of confidence after their win on Saturday night at Barcelona, and they have been scoring goals for fun at home.
I don't think Jose Mourinho will settle for a 1-0 as it is a dangerous score if Bayern Munich do score, and his Real Madrid side have scored at least 3 goals in every home game in the Champions League this season while winning each game with a bit to spare.
With Real winning 9 of their 10 games here under Mourinho in the competition, I think Ladbrokes are perhaps taken a chance with that option at 2.40 and I will take it on.
The Statistics :
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The Pick :
Real Madrid 3-1 Bayern Munich
FIXED ODDS BETTING TIP :
I'll back Real Madrid to win and at least 3 goals scored @ 2.40 (Ladbrokes)
