NBA Basketball
2012-05-19 - Oklahoma City at LA Lakers
A Sports Betting Pick by FirstDown
United States: NBA Basketball Western Conference Play Off Semi Final
Saturday 19 May 2012 - Tip Off 10:30pm ET
3:30am (British Standard Time)
Preview
This has been a very gripping series already as we reach game 4 with the score reading 2-1 in favour of the Oklahoma City Thunder. The LA Lakers will be a little aggrieved that they have not already stolen home court advantage in the series, although it was the Thunder who will be wondering about 'what if' after blowing game 3 last night.
After a blow out in game 1, the last two games have been decided by a combined 5 points. The Lakers gave up a 7 point lead with 2 minutes left in game 2 and that had a lot of people worrying about the way they would react last night. However, it was the Thunder who had a 5 point lead erased with 3 minutes of play left to leave the series in this intriguing position.
By the time we get to game 4, both teams know what the other wants to do and it comes down to which of the teams can impose their game plan with the greater authority. The other interesting factor in this game is the fact that it is the first back to back in the Play Offs and the questions are all surrounding whether the older Lakers squad can keep up with the younger and fresher Thunder.
LA will be looking for big performances from Andrew Bynum and Pau Gasol, especially when it comes to scoring as both struggled a little bit from the field last night. However, they worked well in gathering up the boards, combining for 23 overall, including a couple of big offensive rebounds down the stretch from Gasol.
The Lakers have also made some great adjustments on the defensive side of the court since game 1 and they are limiting the effectiveness of Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook, refusing to let the two Oklahoma City stars take the game away from them as they did in the first game.
With no practice scheduled between games 3 and 4, there will be minor adjustments made at best and it will come down to who can get things going the best.
Head to Head
The Oklahoma City Thunder are now leading the season series 4-2, although they are now 3-3 against the spread following the loss last night.
The Lakers have played the Thunder twice at home this season, winning both games straight up and against the spread.
LA have won their last two games at the Staples Center against Oklahoma City, but they had lost the previous 2 having won 11 in a row before that. The Lakers are 4-2 against the spread in their last 6 at home against the Thunder.
Other Interesting Trends
LA are 13-6 against the spread in their last 19 games as the home underdog of between 0.5 and 4.5 points.
Oklahoma City are 35-16-1 against the spread in their last 52 games as the road favourite of between 0.5 and 4.5 points.
They are 58-28-1 against the spread in their last 77 games following a straight up loss.
Prediction
This is a really tough game to predict and you can see that the layers are having plenty of issues getting to grip with as they have essentially made it a pick 'em contest. The back to back means both teams may be a little tired, but I still think the Over 188.5 points option looks the best way to go for the following reasons:
First, the Over option is 4-2 in the last 6 games between the teams at the Staples Center, while all of those games have gone over the total set tonight.
Second, both of these teams have been involved in more 'Overs' than 'Unders' when playing on back to back nights play.
Third, the Over is also 15-8 when the Lakers have played a team with a winning record in the second half of the season.
Fourth, both teams have been involved in more 'Overs' in this round of the Play Offs. The Lakers games are 8-2 in this round in the last 3 season, while the Thunder games are 6-4.
The Pick :
LA Lakers 96-95 Oklahoma City
FIXED ODDS BETTING TIP :
I'll back the Over 188.5 Points @ 1.95 (188Bet)
