NBA Basketball
2012-05-29 - Oklahoma City at San Antonio Spurs
A Sports Betting Pick by FirstDown
United States: NBA Basketball Western Conference Play Off Final
Tuesday 29 May 2012 - Tip Off 9pm ET
2am (British Standard Time)
Preview
San Antonio took game 1 of the Western Conference Finals, but personally I will remember the game more for the James Harden three pointer to beat the buzzer and cover the spread for what was an otherwise meaningless bucket. More importantly for this series, it is down to the Oklahoma City Thunder to try and level the series before they go back home for a couple of games.
The Spurs looked set to lose their first game in 19 as they trailed the Thunder going into the final quarter, but it was then that Gregg Popovich was heard telling his team 'I want some nasty' that seemed to spur (pardon the pun) them on and overturn that deficit into another win.
Oklahoma City will be upset in the manner they blew the lead in the final quarter as they allowed San Antonio to outscore them by 12 (including a meaningless three at the end from Harden) and there are obvious questions about their emotional state having come so close to stealing home court advantage.
Scott Brooks took the blame for his team as he kept Serge Ibaka on th bench to open the fourth quarter and also blamed himself for not bringing the top class defensive player back into the game sooner. It was the defensive schemes that let down the Thunder in game 1, but they will look to make the slight adjustments to prevent the Spurs grabbing another 30 point quarter after holding them to just 16 in the third quarter.
With just one day between games in the Conference Finals, there can only be limited adjustments made day to day and it will all be about which of these jump shooting teams can get going the best from the field.
Head to Head
San Antonio improved to 3-1 against Oklahoma City this season, although those games have been split 2-2 against the spread.
The Spurs have won their last 5 home games against the Thunder, although they are now 3-2 against the spread in those games.
Other Interesting Trends
San Antonio are 5-2 against the spread in their last 7 games as the home favourite laying between 0.5 and 4.5 points.
They are 13-2-1 against the spread in their last 16 games following a loss against the spread.
Oklahoma City are 59-28-1 against the spread in their last 88 games following a straight up loss.
Prediction
I think this second game of the series is very close to call, but I think it will be a high scoring game so I will take the Over 201.5 points total for the following reasons:
First, the last game did go unders, but the previous 4 in the series have all gone over and all of those would have surpassed the total set for this game.
Second, we saw the teams get a lot more joy offensively in the second half of the last game as they made the correct adjustments after a slow start to the game.
Third, I just have a feeling that both teams are going to surpass the 100 point mark tonight and it is that gut feeling that I am going with tonight after seeing the way the teams played in the second half of the last game.
The Pick :
San Antonio Spurs 107-104 Oklahoma City
FIXED ODDS BETTING TIP :
I'll back the Over 201.5 Points @ 1.92
