NBA Basketball
2012-06-07 - Miami Heat at Boston Celtics
A Sports Betting Pick by FirstDown
United States: NBA Basketball Eastern Conference Play Off Final
Thursday 7 June 2012 - Tip Off 8:30pm ET
1:30am (British Standard Time)
Preview
It has been a remarkable turnaround in the Eastern Conference Finals as the Boston Celtics have now overturned a 0-2 deficit in the series to lead the Miami Heat 3-2 and have the chance to close the deal in front of their passionate home crowd in game 6. All the talk of Boston being too old or too injured looks redundant right now and all the pressure is on the Miami Heat in their second year since combining Dwyane Wade with LeBron James and Chris Bosh.
All the talk ahead of this game is about the poor record Miami have had in Boston since combining the big three together. They have lost 7 of their 8 games at the TD Garden since then, although they should be able to draw on good memories of winning here in the Play Offs last season.
None of the Heat players or staff are worrying too much about their record, speaking in cliches about this is a 'new game' and 'history doesn't matter, but it is all about game 6' etc etc.
Chris Bosh has missed much of the post-season, but he did return for 14 minutes in game 5 and looked effective. However, he was sitting down in the crucial fourth quarter and that is expected to change tonight. Eric Spoelstra has made it clear that Bosh will be playing a 'larger role' in game 6 as the Heat drink in the last chance saloon.
Doc Rivers and the Boston Celtics are not taking this game for granted and they are not accepting the theory that they have two games to get back to the NBA Finals. Rivers has made it clear that their best chance will be to complete the win in game 6 in front of their own fans and that will also give their veteran group a chance to rest up ahead of the NBA Finals rather than going back to Miami for game 7 on Saturday night.
There was a bit of concern when Rajon Rondo had to have a bit of treatment on the elbow he dislocated in the series with the Heat last season, but he managed to get through the game and should be fine. Ray Allen also needed treatment on his ankle, but he was another who got back into the game and should be good to go today. Allen has looked better with his shots in the last couple of games and has provided another shooting boost for the Celtics.
Head to Head
Boston have dominated the season series between the teams and now lead the Miami Heat 6-3, going 8-1 against the spread in those games including winning the last 4.
The Celtics have won all 4 home games against Miami this season, both straight up and against the spread.
Boston are 15-1 in their last 16 home games against Miami, going 12-4 against the spread in those games.
Other Interesting Trends
Boston are 15-5-2 against the spread in their last 22 games as the home underdog given between 0.5 and 4.5 points.
They are 7-2-1 against the spread in their last 10 games against a team with a winning record on the road.
Miami are 5-13 against the spread in their last 18 games against a team that has won at least 60% of their home games.
Prediction
This is going to sound a little boring, but I am going to back the Over 179 Points yet again in this series as I think the layers continuously under-rate the offenses these two teams can generate. I like the over for the following reasons:
First, the over has been the winner in the last four games of this series and both teams have scored at least 90 points in each of those games.
Second, both Boston and Miami have had areas they have exploited during the series while they continue to attack the basket to exploit fouls and getting to the free throw line. Kevin Garnett and Rajon Rondo create match up problems for the Heat, while the returning Chris Bosh showed he can be effective and may free up Dwyane Wade and LeBron James.
Third, the over was a little lucky in game 5 of the series, but anyone who watched the game saw that there were plenty of open looks and it was only the teams shooting sub 40% from the field that made it tighter than it should have been.
Fourth, both teams started a little slowly from the three point line in game 5, but you have to think Miami will get more chances to hit from there with Wade, James and Bosh affecting the interior. If they get hot, which they can, this should help the overs.
The Pick :
Boston Celtics 94-93 Miami Heat
