Euro 2012
2012-06-14 - Italy vs Croatia
A Sports Betting Pick by Auls
Football: Euro 2012 Group C
Thursday 14 June 2012 - Kick Off 5pm
This game is live on TV
Preview
Both teams have vowed to attack in this game and try and pick up the three points that could prove very valuable come the end of the group stage. Croatia can actually book their place in the Quarter Finals of the competition if they get the win, while Italy would be able to keep their destiny in their own hands with three points secured from this one.
The Italians were given a lot of praise for their performance in the 1-1 draw with Spain to open up this group when they looked very menacing going forward. However, their defence looked a little vulnerable, especially when Fernando Torres came on to give the Spanish an actual striker on the field, and it was surprisingly an un-Italian way of conceding the equaliser just three minutes after taking the lead in that game.
Croatia currently top the group after a 3-1 win over the Republic of Ireland, although they took a fair share of luck to actually achieve the result. The second goal looked offside, while the third goal saw a header come off the post and hit Shay Given in the face before heading back into the net.
Both managers have been speaking about the importance of getting the win and that will bring its own pressures into the match. Italy will be wary that a defeat will virtually send them out of the competition, especially if Spain beat Ireland in the later game and it will be interesting to see how they deal with that.
They will feel a draw would at least mean they can beat Ireland and hope there is a winner in the game between Spain and Croatia in the final group stage games, although they won't want to leave their destiny in the hands of others while playing another pressure filled game against Ireland. Italy know a win here would mean a draw with Ireland will be enough to guarantee their place in the Quarter Finals so I expect Cesare Prandelli goes for it.
Slaven Bilic has also spoken that it is impossible to play for a draw in this game if they are to give themselves a chance of playing in the last eight and so he will look to exploit their height advantages from all set pieces and try and break through that way.
Head to Head
Italy have failed to beat Croatia on the last five occasions they have faced them, including a 0-2 defeat at home in an international friendly that marked Slaven Bilic's first game in charge of the Croatians.
Croatia also beat Italy 2-1 in the World Cup of 2002- that game was also the second game of the group stages.
The Croatians have won 3 of the last 5 meetings between the nations, the others ending in draws.
Prediction
Croatia have been something of a bogey team for Italy in recent meetings, although the fact that they have not met since 2006 means that both nations have changed a fair bit since then.
After the game between Italy and Spain, I can imagine a lot of people want to get on the Italians in this game as they looked very dangerous when they had the ball and had a go at Spain's defence. I expect they can get some joy against a Croatia backline that does look a little vulnerable and that could lead them to a vital three points in the section.
However, Italy have to be careful about giving away too many free-kicks and corners as Croatia hold a significant height advantage in that department and have already shown the problems they can create for defences when beating Ireland in the first group stage.
Italy's record against Croatia is a little worrying, but those are there to be broken and I don't think Cesare Prandelli is going to ask his team to sit back but will send them out to win this game. After watching the way they played in the first game against Spain, I think there is every chance Italy can go on and pick up the three points although it could be touch and go for a while.
The odds against quotes did appeal to me, but I think there is a niggle at the back of my mind that is telling me that backing Italy to win by a solitary goal is much better value in a game that could be close for a long time.
With that being offered at 4.00 by Ladbrokes, I think it is worth having a small interest.
The Pick :
Italy 2-1 Croatia
