English Premier
2012-08-26 - Liverpool vs Manchester City
A Sports Betting Pick by Auls
Football: English Premier League
Sunday 26 August 2012 - Kick Off 4pm
This game is live on TV
Liverpool
Brendan Rodgers saw his side capitulate at West Brom last week after Daniel Agger was sent off, but they had the same issues as they did last season in creating a number of chances but failing to take their chances. Liverpool had a Europa League tie at Hearts during the week and managed to rest their big stars while winning 0-1 in Scotland, but they need to make a good start to get the Anfield crowd behind them.
It has to be said that the crowd could be a little tense in the opening of this game after the disappointing result to open the season and now having to entertain the Champions in their first home game. Last season, Liverpool finished with a 6-9-4 record at Anfield, scoring 24 goals and conceding 16 and they ranked towards the bottom in terms of home wins and goals.
Liverpool have actually lost 4 of their last 6 Premier League games going back to last season, and their poor form in the second half of the season ultimately cost Kenny Dalglish his job. All 4 Liverpool home defeats came in their last 7 Premier League games at Anfield and they have won just 4 of their last 16 games here.
Steven Gerrard, Luis Suarez, Martin Skrtel, Glen Johnson and Lucas should all be restored to the side, but Dan Agger serves a suspension. Joe Cole suffered a knock last week and may also miss out.
Manchester City
The Etihad Stadium fell into a hush as their hero from last season, Sergio Aguero, lay prone on the turf and had to be stretchered off. In the new social media World, rumours abounded that Aguero would miss the majority of this season, but it now seems he will only sit out a month. Manchester City beat Southampton to open their League campaign, coming back from 1-2 down to win the game 3-2.
City won 10 of their 19 away League games last season, but they were also beaten in 5 of those games, while they did finish with the most away goals in the League with 38. In fact, only Manchester United conceded fewer goals in their away games last season.
It looked like the Premier League title was gone from City's grasp when they lost 1-0 at Arsenal, but they have since won 7 straight League games. City won their last 3 away games in the League last season, but had previously been on a run where they had won just 2 of their previous 10 away games.
Sergio Aguero is out and could be replaced by either Mario Balotelli or Edin Dzeko. Gareth Barry may be a returnee, but Micah Richards remains sidelined.
Head to Head
Liverpool and Manchester City met each other 4 times in all competitions last season and both sides won 1 game and drew the other 2.
Both of the draws came at Anfield and Liverpool are now unbeaten in their last 10 at home against City.
4 of the last 5 games here have finished with the points shared.
Prediction
This is actually a lot tougher to call than some may think when taking in their first impressions.
Liverpool may have lost 3-0 at West Brom last week, but they did create chances in that game and were actually undone by a couple of harsh decisions from the referee which left them down to ten men. On another day, Liverpool would have won that game comfortably and I think they will pose Manchester City a number of problems in this game.
It will also be interesting how City deal with the absence of Sergio Aguero, although Carlos Tevez has opened the season in very good form. They have also had a hard time against Liverpool over the last couple of seasons, while Anfield has proved to be a difficult hunting ground for them.
I did consider backing the draw in this one considering that has been a popular result between the teams in recent games here, but instead I am going to back the over 2.5 goals, which has also been a winner in matches between these teams more often than not recently.
Games between the 'big' teams in the Premier League have shifted from being tight affairs decided by a goal or two to now being a lot more attacking and frequently seeing a few goals shared over the last couple of seasons. Also, recent history in this fixture has shown goals to be on the menu.
4 of the last 6 overall have ended with at least 3 goals scored between the teams, while 3 of the last 4 at Anfield have finished with at least 3 goals scored.
If Liverpool keep creating the chances they have been over the last 12 months, you have to think they will get on the scoreboard in this one, while Manchester City's attacking options are well documented. My biggest problem would be the 1-1 draw, but they have played out two 2-2 draws in the last four games here and the overs at odds against looks good value.
The Statistics :
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The Pick :
Liverpool 2-2 Manchester City
FIXED ODDS BETTING TIP :
I'll back Over 2.5 Goals @ 2.05
