NFL Football
2012-09-10 - San Diego Chargers at Oakland Raiders
A Sports Betting Pick by FirstDown
United States: NFL Week 1
Monday 10 September 2012 - Kick Off 10:15pm ET
3:15am (British Time)
Preview
Another Divisional match up for us in the second of the opening Monday Night Football double-header as the AFC West rivals Oakland Raiders and San Diego Chargers meet as they look to keep tabs on an impressive looking Peyton Manning and the Denver Broncos.
Both teams will feel confident of their chances of having a real impact in the AFC West this season, although there are question marks about both.
We saw Oakland mortgage the house on Carson Palmer last season when they traded for him from the Cincinnati Bengals. Palmer was inconsistent, but that was no surprise considering he hadn't played any competitive football in months and was getting used to a new team and new play calls.
Now that he has had an off-season here, I expect he will be better. Palmer has had to learn a new Offense after the entire coaching staff was removed at the end of last season, but he has some very speedy receivers here and I think they will have more success with the deep ball.
The main reason will not just be Palmer having more time with the receivers, but the fact that Darren McFadden is back and healthy to start in this one. McFadden is one of the most exciting backs in the League and he missed the last 9 games last season, but his return will mean teams have to pay attention to him. San Diego gave up 4.4 yards per carry last season and McFadden did go for over 100 yards of total Offense and a touchdown the last time he came up against them.
If McFadden can earn yards like I expect, it only makes the Raiders that much more dangerous off the play-action and going for the big play over the top through Palmer's arm.
On the other side of the ball, Philip Rivers is looking for a bounce back season after a disappointing 2011 when he finished with a 27-20 touchdown-interception ratio. He has lost Vincent Jackson from the receiving corps this season, but Antonio Gates is as healthy as he has been for some time and the likes of Malcolm Floyd and Robert Meacham do give him some threats.
He should have some success against the Raiders whose Secondary is not a strength, although the Offensive Line will have to do better than when they gave up 6 sacks in their first game with Oakland last season. The Raiders have lost Kamerion Wimbley who had 7 sacks last season, but they still have a strong Defensive Line that will be able to get to Rivers if he spends too long with the ball in his hand.
The Raiders biggest weakness in 2011 was the run Defense that was gashed for 5.1 yards per carry, by Ryan Mathews will not be in the line up for San Diego in this game. That means Ronnie Brown will get the start, but the former Miami Dolphin struggled in Philadelphia last season and I am not sure he has a lot left in the tank.
Without Mathews, there will be a little more pressure on Rivers to deliver the goods and that may allow the Raiders to send their pass rush after him to look after the Secondary.
Head to Head
Oakland had won 3 games in a row in the series before losing in Week 17 last season that cost them the AFC West Divisional title and a place in the Play Offs.
The Raiders have been dominated at home by the Chargers, going 1-7 in the last 8 in the series played in Oakland. They are also just 2-8 against the spread in their last 10 home games against San Diego.
Other Interesting Trends
Oakland are 10-3 against the spread in their last 13 games against Divisional rivals.
They are 1-3-1 against the spread in their last 5 home games.
Prediction
I am taking another small interest in the Line/Total Points double being offered by Paddy Power and I like the Oakland Raiders - 1.5 points and over 46.5 total points.
Oakland are perhaps being a little under-rated in this one as they have some key men back, most notably Darren McFadden, from the team that was beaten at home in the final game of last season. On the other hand, San Diego have a few injuries that makes them look the weaker of the two teams.
I am also expecting a lot of points in this one as both teams look more than capable of putting up 24 points on the board as both will look for the big play to expose the Secondary of the opposition at times.
The biggest issue could be a number of interceptions being thrown, particularly by Carson Palmer, but Oakland do look like they should have more points to cover in this one.
It isn't a big surprise to me that the last 5 games in Oakland have surpassed the total points and I just think Darren McFadden will ultimately make the difference in the game and lead the Raiders to a Divisional win.
San Diego have made slow starts in the past, so I will look for another, while Divisional favourites of under 3 points are 16-6 against the spread since 2000 (although both Arizona and Tampa Bay broke this trend yesterday, while New York Jets covered it).
The Statistics :
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The Pick :
Oakland Raiders 28-24 San Diego Chargers
