NCAA Football
2012-09-15 - FIU Golden Panthers at UCF Knights
A Sports Betting Pick by FirstDown
United States: College Football
Saturday 15 September 2012 - Kick Off 4pm ET
9pm (British Time)
Preview
Both the UCF Knights (1-1) and the FIU Golden Panthers (1-1) are considered the leading contenders in the Conference USA and the Sun Belt Conference, but both will be focusing on State pride when it comes to this game.
UCF have made a solid start to the new season and will be confident of keeping the chains moving when they have the ball, either through the air or on the ground. Blake Bortles should find success against the FIU pass Defense, especially as the latter have been guilty of giving up the big play and I expect him to have time to pass the ball as the Golden Panthers haven't generated an effective pass rush.
Any pass rush they do have could be negated by Storm Johnson who has been running the ball well in the first two games. FIU have been stout against the run, but a lot of that could do with the fact that teams don't need to pound the ball against them consistently with the passing option being a successful alternative.
The Knights did struggle to 3 yards per carry in their game with the Golden Panthers last season, but they may be able to open those lanes if Bortles has the success expected through the air and Johnson may then be able to pound some hard yards out on the ground.
Jake Medlock has proved to be an effective dual-threat Quarter Back for the Golden Panthers and he has been responsible for 698 yards of the 924 total Offensive yards the FIU team have put up this season. The Golden Panthers should be able to get the ball moving somewhat on the ground in this one, but if they fall behind and are forced into passing, it could be a different story.
The Knights have only given up 205 yards per game through the air and that says a lot considering they have played in Ohio State as one of those games. The Defense has managed to get pressure on the opposition Quarter Back and have 4 sacks this season and that could be a problem for Medlock who has been taken down 6 times already.
Turnovers may also be a key as UCF gave a vital one away to FIU last season in what ended up being a surprising loss.
Head to Head
That game last season was the only one between these two State rivals and ended with a 17-10 win for the Golden Panthers even though they were set as 6 point underdogs.
Other Interesting Trends
UCF Knights are 6-2 against the spread in their last 8 games against non-Conference schools.
They are 11-4 against the spread in their last 15 home games.
FIU have lost their last 5 games against the spread against non-Conference schools.
They are 2-5 against the spread in their last 7 road games.
Prediction
I am going to back the UCF Knights to win this game and cover the spread for the following reasons:
First, this is a big revenge spot for the Knights who can direct all their attention to the Golden Panthers with a bye week following this one. After the loss last season, I expect UCF to come out fired up to turn things around.
Second, FIU struggled to put away Akron last week, a team that UCF have already blown out, while their loss to Duke and the Knights' hard fight against Ohio State indicates that these teams are in two different levels of talent.
Third, I like the Knights chances to keep the ball moving with more consistency than the Golden Panthers in this one.
Fourth, the Knights are usually a very tough favourite, going 16-8 against the spread over the last 5 seasons as the home favourite.
The Pick :
UCF Knights 38-21 FIU Golden Panthers
