NCAA Football
2012-09-15 - Western Kentucky at Kentucky Wildcats
A Sports Betting Pick by FirstDown
United States: College Football
Saturday 15 September 2012 - Kick Off 7pm ET
Midnight (British Time)
Preview
The Kentucky Wildcats (1-1) are in the powerful SEC, but before Conference play starts they are looking to get some respect back in their State by knocking off the Western Kentucky Hilltoppers (1-1). The latter are coming off a decent effort against an SEC powerhouse in the form of the National Champions Alabama.
Kentucky are unlikely to do enough to earn a Bowl spot barring some really surprising results in the SEC which they open up next week with 7 straight games against Conference rivals.
This won't be an easy game for Kentucky with the way Western Kentucky performed against Alabama, but the question becomes how much has the Crimson Tide game taken out of them. The Wildcats and Maxwell Smith have been very effective in the passing Offense, although they could face some real pressure with the Hilltoppers pass rush accounting for 6 sacks against Alabama last week.
However, Smith has been playing very efficiently for Kentucky and he could be given some more support if the run game can find something. Western Kentucky held Alabama to a little over 3 yards per carry, but the Wildcats have gone at 5.7 yards per carry so far this season and that may be enough to slow down the pass rush enough for Smith to make plays downfield.
Kawaun Jakes has made a very good start to the new season for Western Kentucky and the team are completing 69% of their passes so far and I expect more success against the Wildcats. However, Jakes, like his counterpart Smith, is going to have to be wary of the pass rush that Kentucky can generate as they are averaging 3 sacks per contest.
The Hilltoppers Offensive Line did have a tough battle against Alabama last week so they may be a little soft for this game and it will be interesting whether they can keep the pass rush from Jakes and open holes for the running game.
Kentucky have given up almost 5 yards per carry this season on the ground and I think Western Kentucky will have some joy in that department despite struggling against the awesome Alabama Defensive Line (they won't be the only team to struggle in that spot this season).
Head to Head
Kentucky and Western Kentucky will be meeting for the fourth time and the Wildcats have won all 3 previous meetings including an error-strewn game last season that included 7 interceptions.
Kentucky have hosted all 3 previous games and have won all 3, both straight up and against the spread.
Every win has come by a minimum of 11 points.
Prediction
I am going to back the Kentucky Wildcats to win this game and cover the spread for the following reasons:
First, the SEC is likely to be a step too far for the Wildcats and they are should be fully focused on getting some respect back in the State after an opening day loss in Louisville.
Second, I feel Western Kentucky, while wanting to win this game without a doubt, will be a little beat up after that tough game in Alabama last week and another road game at a rival from the SEC is a big ask for them.
Third, Kentucky are 6-2 against the spread as the home favourite under Joker Phillips.
The Pick :
Kentucky Wildcats 28-17 Western Kentucky
