NCAA Football
2012-09-15 - Texas Longhorns at Mississippi Rebels
A Sports Betting Pick by FirstDown
United States: College Football
Saturday 15 September 2012 - Kick Off 9:15pm ET
2:15am (British Time)
Preview
This is a big clash between the SEC's Mississippi Rebels (2-0) and the Big 12's Texas Longhorns (2-0) with a little more on the line as both teams are unbeaten and both ready to start Conference play in the next couple of weeks. There will be a lot of eyes on this game and it will be worth watching for the Texas Longhorns Defense, many of whom will be NFL players of the future.
It isn't the Defense that is worrying Longhorns fans up and down the nation, but an Offense that still has some concerns about the Quarter Back position. David Ash has been the player getting the bulk of the snaps and he has responded with 3 touchdown passes and 0 interceptions with a 73% completion rate.
However, he hasn't faced the most taxing of opponents and meeting an SEC team will certainly let us know more about what he is capable of. It has been possible to pass on Mississippi this season as they have given up 260 yards per game through the air, but they also have a Defensive Line that can cause havoc in the backfield and have been responsible for 9 sacks in their first 2 games.
Ash will need some protection from his Offensive Line, but a more effective way of getting this done is using the running game that has pounded out 5.5 yards per carry so far this season. The Rebels are giving up just 2.1 yards per carry, but they haven't faced a team of Texas' standing just yet.
It will be a tough game throughout the contest, but I am expecting Texas to make enough plays to keep the chains moving, even if some drives are likely to stall against an SEC Defense.
While Texas will be tested when they have the ball, Bo Wallace will face his biggest start for Ole Miss in this one at the Quarter Back position for the Rebels. Wallace has been an effective dual-threat Quarter Back, but he is facing the best Defense he has seen in College and one that is limiting teams whether they run the ball or throw it.
The Longhorns are holding teams to 3.6 yards per carry and can devote all their time, with a bye week following this one, to stopping Wallace making the plays at Quarter Back. To make it tougher, Texas have allowed less than 160 yards per game through the air and have already picked up 3 interceptions while allowing opposition Quarter Backs to complete just 50% of their attempted passes.
If Texas can build a lead, it may also give them time to expose the Offensive Line issues Ole Miss have had considering the Rebels have already given up 4 sacks and they don't want to allow Alex Okafor and Jackson Jeffcoat to pin back their ears and rush Bo Wallace at will.
Head to Head
Texas are leading the all time series 5-1, but the last of those games was played in the 1960s so are largely irrelevant for this one.
Other Interesting Trends
Mississippi are 13-3 against the spread in their last 16 games against non-Conference schools.
Texas are 5-2 against the spread in their last 7 games against non-Conference schools.
Prediction
I am backing the Texas Longhorns to win this game and cover the spread for the following reasons:
First, I think the Longhorns Defense will make it very tough on the young Quarter Back Mississippi will be starting in this game and I just don't think they will be able to do enough Offensively to stay in this game.
Second, the Rebels are not a great home underdog having gone 2-7 against the spread in this spot over the last three seasons.
Third, the Longhorns, on the other hand, enjoy playing as the road favourite having gone 9-5 against the spread in this situation over the last four seasons.
Fourth, I think the Texas Defense is more capable of turning the ball over and earning short fields for their Offense and thus being able to score more points than the Rebels.
The Pick :
Mississippi Rebels 13-27 Texas Longhorns
FIXED ODDS BETTING TIP :
I'll back the Texas Longhorns - 10 Points @ 2.00
