NCAA Football
2012-09-22 - Miami Hurricanes at Georgia Tech
A Sports Betting Pick by FirstDown
United States: NCAA Football Week 4
Saturday 22 September 2012 - Kick Off 3pm
8pm (British Time)
Preview
These two schools are both part of the ACC Coastal Division, although neither will be expected to be playing in the ACC Championship Game this season. The Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets (2-1) have bounced back from an opening week defeat to the Virginia Tech Hokies, while the Miami Hurricanes (2-1) have the same record, but have had an arguably weaker schedule.
Everyone knows the Georgia Tech squad run the triple-option, but it can be hard for Defenses to prepare for it when they are playing week in week out and that is the case for Miami this week. A bigger concern may be the fact that the Hurricanes are giving up 4.2 yards per carry this season and were gashed for almost 300 yards on the ground by Kansas State who run a similar Offense to the Yellow Jackets.
Tevin Washington and Orwin Smith are both expected to have big days, while Washington should also be pass when required as the Hurricanes have allowed over 250 yards per game through the air. Miami don't generate enough of a pass rush and I expect the Georgia Tech Offense to pick up from where they left off against Virginia last week.
The question then shifts to Miami and wondering how Stephen Morris and the Offense will be able to move the chains. The Yellow Jackets are restricting teams to 175 yards per game through the air and they have also held teams to 3.6 yards per carry on the ground. The Defense can also get after the Quarter Back in obvious passing situations and Miami have had some Offensive Line problems in the early part of the season.
Miami have been carrying the ball at 5 yards per carry, but they were heavily restricted by Kansas State and only managed 55 yards against them and now they face what has been a very effective Defense that is second in the ACC in terms of points allowed per game. It could be another tough day for the Hurricanes as they enter a stretch of games that could really send them spiralling to a losing record for the season.
Head to Head
Miami have dominated the series in recent seasons and recorded their 3rd win in a row last season with a 17 point win at home.
The Hurricanes have covered the spread in the last 3 games, although previously they had lost 4 in a row to Georgia Tech both straight up and against the spread.
Georgia Tech are 2-1 in the last 3 games at Bobby Dodd Stadium both straight up and against the spread.
Other Interesting Trends
Miami are 6-2 against the spread in their last 8 games against Conference rivals.
They are 5-1 against the spread in their last 6 road games.
Prediction
I am going to take the Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets to win this game and cover the spread for the following reasons:
First, I believe they are better on both sides of the ball than Miami and I feel they will be able to move the ball with much more consistency and success than the Hurricanes.
Second, this is a big revenge spot for Georgia Tech who have lost 3 games in a row in the series and I expect they are going to be fully focused to hand out a big defeat with only Middle Tennessee on deck.
Third, the Yellow Jackets are 4-1-1 against the spread as the home favourite since the beginning of last season.
The Pick :
Georgia Tech 34-16 Miami Hurricanes
