Clemson Tigers at Boston College Betting pick | 2012-09-29

NCAA Football

2012-09-29 - Clemson Tigers at Boston College

A Sports Betting Pick by FirstDown

Clemson Tigers @ Boston College Eagles
United States: NCAA Week 5
Saturday 29 September 2012 - Kick Off 3:30pm
8:30pm (British Time)

Preview

The Clemson Tigers (3-1) have to show some real character this week as they look to bounce back from their big Conference loss to the Florida State Seminoles last week which makes it very tough for them to make it to the ACC Championship Game. They should find a way to get focused as they play another Conference rival as they travel to the Boston College Eagles (1-2) who are coming off a bye week.

Clemson are now 0-1 in the ACC following that loss to the Seminoles last week, but they are looking to avoid a let down spot here. Tajh Boyd is obviously aware of the psychological impact a defeat like the one they suffered can have and he called a players only meeting to get them focused for the remaining challenges this season.

They will come into this game without star receiver Sammy Watkins who hasn't troubled as he has an illness. Clemson are still averaging 296 yards per game through the air this season and I expect Boyd to have success in this game, even without Watkins, as Boston College are giving up over 200 yards per game through the air and haven't played a Quarter Back as good as this one.

The Eagles won't be able to drop too many men into coverage to prevent the passing lanes opening up as Andre Ellington is more than capable of gashing them on the ground. Clemson are averaging 4.8 yards per carry on the season and the Eagles have allowed 4.5 yards per carry so I am expecting Clemson to keep the chains moving throughout the contest as long as they aren't too upset from last week.

It won't be all one-way traffic though as Chase Rettig has proven that he is a Quarter Back that deserves his starting job with Boston College. Rettig has helped the team reach 317 yards per game through the air and he has been well protected by his Offensive Line while the QB has only thrown 1 interception.

That ability to avoid turnovers will be key to their chances, but the game could be decided on which of the teams weakness can have the greater success. Clemson have struggled to stop teams running on them and are giving up 5.4 yards per carry so far this season, but the Eagles are struggling to just 3 yards per carry.

Head to Head

Clemson were comfortable winners at home against Boston College last season and they are now 3-1, both straight up and against the spread, in the last 4 games in the series.

Boston College are 2-1 in their last 3 home games against Clemson and they have covered the spread in 2 of those games.

Other Interesting Trends

Boston College are 4-12 against the spread in their last 16 home games.

However, they are 5-2 against the spread in their last 7 games off a bye.

Clemson are 9-3 against the spread in their last 12 games against Conference rivals.

Prediction

I am going to back the Clemson Tigers to win this game and cover the spread for the following reasons:

First, it can be hard to determine how a team is going to respond to a big defeat as it can really go two ways- either they bounce back in brilliant fashion or they spiral out of control. I just have the idea that Clemson are going to bounce back and put in a big performance in this one.

Second, as well as Chase Rettig has played this season, this is the toughest team he would have seen and the pressure of keeping up with a high-powered, high-scoring Offense that Clemson do have.

Third, I know the Tigers lost last week, but they still managed to create a big lead against a Defense as good as Florida State's and I just think they will have more consistency moving the chains of the two teams in this one with the much more balanced Offense they run.