Ajax vs Real Madrid Betting Pick | Champions League

Champions League

2012-10-03 - Ajax vs Real Madrid

A Sports Betting Pick by Auls

Ajax v Real Madrid
Football: European Champions League
Wednesday 3 October 2012 - Kick Off 7:45pm
This game is live on TV

Ajax

The Ajax name is still a big one in Europe, but it has been far too long since the Dutch side were involved in the latter stages of the premier competition in Europe. Their 1-0 loss at Borussia Dortmund in the first round of matches already leaves Ajax in an incredibly tough spot with the next three games against Real Madrid and Manchester City.

The side are 4th in the Dutch domestic League and that leaves them 3 points behind Twente at the top of the table. Ajax are unbeaten in their last 3 games since the loss in Dortmund, winning 2 in a row coming into this one. Their home form at the Amsterdam Arena has been even more impressive with 12 games unbeaten in all competitions, winning 11, since a 0-2 loss to Manchester United in the Europa League.

Ajax were knocked out of the Champions League last season thanks to a strange result when Dinamo Zagreb lost 1-7 at home to Lyon. The team only picked up 4 points from a possible 9 at home last season and they have now lost just 2 of their last 8 at home in this competition, although winning just 4 of those games.

Miralem Sulejmani is out after breaking down in training so the same XI that started the 1-0 win over Twente could be starting this game.

Real Madrid

It had been a tough start to the season that looked to be getting worse as Real Madrid were somehow trailing to Manchester City 1-2 at the Santiago Bernebeau with time running out. The relief could be seen in Jose Mourinho's celebrations as his side turned that around to win 3-2 and they now look to put a stamp on this Group.

That win over City followed a 1-0 loss in Sevilla and they have won 3 in a row in all competitions since that loss. Real Madrid are up to 6th in La Liga, but they still trail Barcelona by 8 points which looks a huge deficit to make up. The team had lost 3 straight away games in all competitions before a 0-2 win at Rayo last time out.

Real Madrid have lost just 1 of their last 14 games in the Champions League, while they had been unbeaten in 12 away games in the competition before losing 2-1 at Bayern Munich in the Semi Final last season. They have won 4 of their last 6 away games in this competition.

Michael Essien is back in the squad which is otherwise unchanged from the weekend win over Deportivo.

Head to Head

These two teams have met in the last two seasons in the Champions League and Real Madrid have dominated Ajax including 0-3 and 0-4 wins here in Amsterdam.

In the four games over the last two seasons, Real Madrid are leading 12-0 on aggregate.

Prediction

Real Madrid have really dominated Ajax in the last couple of seasons and I still think there is too large a difference in quality between these teams to think it will be anything but an away win this time around too.

If this match had been a couple of weeks ago, I might have considered Ajax to have some change of earning the surprise result, but I do believe Real Madrid have turned a corner with their 3-2 win over Manchester City and I expect Jose Mourinho will play a strong team to get the game settled early as possible.

One element that is bothering me is the fact that Real Madrid are going to play Barcelona this weekend in what could be considered a 'must not lose' game considering the difference in points between the teams already domestically.

So the question is how much focus can Real Madrid have on this game? I believe Mourinho will make sure the players know their role and they have been 'efficient' in away games in the Champions League since the 'Special One' took over.

All of Real's away wins in the Champions League under Mourinho have one thing in common- they all come with clean sheets.

That could be the case again on Wednesday as their two previous wins over Ajax have been to nil and I expect Mourinho will demand they concentrate at the back in the knowledge they will create chances at the other end and should secure the win.

The Statistics :

AJAX LAST SIX HOME FORM
	DATE	RESULT		OPPOSITION
	2011-12-07	L	0-3	H v Real_Madrid
	2011-11-02	W	4-0	H v Dinamo_Zagreb
	2011-09-14	D	0-0	H v Lyon
	2010-11-23	L	0-4	H v Real_Madrid
	2010-10-19	W	2-1	H v Auxerre
	2010-09-28	D	1-1	H v Milan_AC

REAL_MADRID LAST SIX AWAY FORM
	DATE	RESULT		OPPOSITION
	2012-04-17	L	2-1	A v Bayern_Munchen
	2012-03-27	W	0-3	A v APOEL_Nicosia
	2012-01-21	D	1-1	A v CSKA_Moscow
	2011-12-07	W	0-3	A v Ajax
	2011-11-02	W	0-2	A v Lyon
	2011-09-14	W	0-1	A v Dinamo_Zagreb