NCAA Football
2025-09-27 - USC Trojans at Illinois Fighting Illini
A Sports Betting Pick by FirstDown
United States : College Football Week 5
Saturday 27th September 2025 - Scheduled 12pm
5pm (British Time)
Preview
Some will argue that the Big Ten may be the toughest Conference in College Football with the Ohio State Buckeyes the National Champions and the likes of the Oregon Ducks, Penn State Nittany Lions and Indiana Hoosiers all looking capable of matching the Playoff runs from 2024.
Add the USC Trojans (4-0) to the mix after they continued their perfect start to the season with a big home win over the Michigan State Spartans. That victory also means USC are leading the way in the Big Ten Conference with the 2-0 record in the books, although this is a team that is still going to learn a lot more about themselves in the weeks and months ahead.
Wins over the Purdue Boilermakers and Michigan State Spartans are decent enough, but the Trojans will be set for a challenge in Week 5 when visiting the Illinois Fighting Illini (3-1).
Granted, there may have been a really different feel around the game if the Fighting Illini had not just been crushed by 53 points at the home of the Hoosiers.
Losing is one thing and the Fighting Illini will be aware that they still have time to turn the perceptions around, but the bigger impact is the number of injuries suffered in the Secondary both before the loss to the Hoosiers and during the defeat. In the Big Ten you need your best players and Illinois are going to be without some hugely influential players that will make it tough to slow down a USC Offensive unit that have begun the season incredibly brightly.
The early Saturday kick off time is an issue, but USC did not let that bother them in the road win over Purdue.
There will be a real feeling on the Offensive side of the ball that the Trojans can do much of what they like considering how well the Offensive Line are playing. They should be able to establish the run very efficiently and this is just going to make things as comfortable as possible for Quarter Back Jayden Maiava, even if Ja'Kobi Lane has to miss another game.
With the injuries in the Secondary and the likelihood of the Trojans running the ball very well, Jayden Maiava should have his way as he continues to be well protected and it should mean the USC Trojans can pile up some points.
The pressure will subsequently be on Luke Altmyer and the Illinois Fighting Illini Offensive unit to at least be able to control the tempo of this game and to try and keep up with the Trojans on the scoreboard.
There are very little positives to take out of the beat down in Indiana and Luke Altmyer struggled with less than 150 passing yards thrown.
Problems began right up front as the Offensive Line struggled to open up holes in the running game and the grand total of 2 rushing yards last week was clearly a big issue. Despite the three wins secured early, the Fighting Illini had been inconsistent on the ground and they are not likely to see much change out of this strong looking USC Defensive Line.
It wasn't just run blocking, but the Illinois Offensive Line struggled in pass protection and there is every chance that the Quarter Back is going to be under siege for a second game in a row. Seven Sacks were produced by the Hoosiers and this Trojans pass rush are going to feel they are in and around Luke Altmyer all day if the Fighting Illini have struggled to run the ball.
As teams have chased big deficits, the Trojans have allowed some passing yards to be given up, but this looks another big test for the Fighting Illini Offensively having failed as comprehensively as they did in Week 4.
The Trojans are just 3-12 against the spread in the last fifteen games in which they have been set as the road favourite and that does temper some enthusiasm to back them here.
However, they look the stronger team on both sides of the ball and this feels like a very tough spot for Illinois after all they suffered last week.
Head Coach Bret Bielema has a good record after a loss and he has been a solid underdog to back, but his Illinois team are just 2-3 against the spread as the home underdog in the last couple of seasons. They will be better than last week, which is not going to be too difficult, but the USC Trojans can do enough Offensively to pull away and then allow the pass rush to force the stops needed to secure a win by double digits for a fifth time in five outings in 2025.
Prediction
Lay the points with the road favourite.
The Pick :
Illinois Fighting Illini 20-30 USC Trojans
