NFL Football
2025-10-05 - Las Vegas Raiders at Indianapolis Colts
A Sports Betting Pick by FirstDown
United States : NFL Week 5
Sunday 5th October 2025 - Scheduled 1pm
6pm (British Time)
Preview
One blown coverage ended the unbeaten start to the season, but the Indianapolis Colts (3-1) will be looking to bounce back immediately and reinstate their belief that they are the best team in the AFC South.
Two crushing wins over the Miami Dolphins and Tennessee Titans and a fortunate one over the Denver Broncos made for a good start to the season, but the Colts were narrowly beaten by the Los Angeles Rams.
Being back at home will help and the Colts are also going up against a struggling Las Vegas Raiders (1-3) team that have been guilty of shooting themselves in the foot.
A one point loss to the Chicago Bears makes it three defeats in a row for the Raiders and it is never easy having to play in the early time slot for teams out West.
Running the ball has been the focus for the Raiders, but they have lost a key part of the Offensive Line to injury and that could make things tougher this week. They are also going up against an Indianapolis Colts Defensive Line that have looked improved at clamping down on the run and that will mean it could be up to Quarter Back Geno Smith to find a way to keep the chains moving.
The veteran has been struggling with the Raiders having issues in pass protection and Geno Smith has to know he is going to be put under pressure whenever in obvious passing situations. There are some talented Receivers on the roster, but that pressure has forced mistakes and Smith will need to be careful against this Secondary, even after the unexpected sudden retirement of Xavien Howard during the week.
Indianapolis received a bit of positive news on the other side of the ball with Matt Goncalves set to take his place on the Offensive Line and this should also be good news for Jonathan Taylor. The Running Back is facing a tough Defensive Line, but he will be hoping his healthy Offensive Line can open up a couple of lanes and Taylor has shown that is all he needs to take the ball and carry it down the field.
He will be aided by the running threat that comes with a Quarter Back like Daniel Jones and the Colts may feel they can get something going on the ground, even against a solid enough unit like the one the Raiders will trot out to stop them.
Daniel Jones won the starting job and has begun the season really well, although he did throw his first couple of Interceptions of the season last week.
Having eyes on Maxx Crosby is key and if the Colts can contain the pass rusher, Daniel Jones should have enough time in the pocket to attack this Secondary, while play-action is another important part of the game-plan. The Colts have really shown something Offensively through four games and they can keep that going, especially back at home, and it should give them a good chance to bounce back in a winning effort.
Raiders Head Coach Pete Carroll is still trying to stamp his authority on his team and it just feels like Las Vegas are making enough mistakes to believe one or two more in this game will help Indianapolis along to win and cover this line set.
Prediction
Lay the points with the home team as they look to bounce back from the first defeat of the season.
The Pick :
Indianapolis Colts 27-17 Las Vegas Raiders
FIXED ODDS BETTING TIP :
I'll back Indianapolis Colts - 7 Points at -111 with Bookmaker.EU
