Rugby
2011-09-18 - Wales vs Samoa
A Sports Betting Pick by Mike
Rugby : Rugby World Cup 2011 : Pool D
Sunday, 18th September 2011 - Kickoff 3:30pm (local)
This one is a fairly close call - and could easily be an "upset" win to Samoa. Wales hold a IRB ranking of 6, with Samoa only a few rating points behind at No. 10.
Wales
There is little chance of Wales underestimating Samoa. Samoa beat Wales 16-13 in Cardiff at RWC 1991, and again, 38-31 in RWC 1999. Samoa also defeated Tri Nations champions Australia in July and their 37-point win over Namibia on Wednesday in their RWC 2011 opener was impressive.
I'm picking the Welsh will bounce back strongly from their frustratingly close defeat to RWC champions South Africa. Wales will be highly motivated versus Samoa, but as that game was a bit of a shocker for the Boks I'm just not sure that Wales have it in them.
Wales have had a seven-day turnaround from the Springboks defeat, compared with the four days between games for the Samoans. Wales should be fresher, but still look to field a team that's a little unbalanced given the scale of the Samoan opposition.
Team
The starting lineup Wales: Paul James 1, Huw Bennett 2, Adam Jones 3, Luke Charteris 4, Alun Wyn Jones 5, Danny Lydiate 6, Sam Warburton 7, Toby Faletau 8, Mike Phillips 9, Rhys Priestland 10, Shane Williams 11, Jamie Roberts 12, Jonathan Davies 13, George North 14, James Hook 15
Samoa
Team and Tactics
Samoa's "wrecking-ball" wing Alesana Tuilagi, who plays for English club Leicester Tigers, will be hoping to add to the three tries he scored against an outclassed Namibia.
Fly half Tusi Pisi and flanker Taiasina Tuifua both came off in the first half of Samoa v Namibia on Wednesday, but both are named to play against the Welsh.(Tuifua's on the bench).
The only other change to the team is Jeremy Sua, who will replace Junior Poluleuligaga on the bench.
The starting lineup is looking promising for Samoa: 1 Sakaria Taulafo, 2 Mahonri Schwalger, 3 Anthony Perenise, 4 Daniel Leo, 5 Kane Thompson, 6 Ofisa Treviranus, 7 Maurie Faasavalu, 8 George Stowers, 9 Kahn Fotuali'i, 10 Tusi Pisi, 11 Alesana Tuilagi, 12 Seilala Mapusua, 13 George Pisi, 14 Sailosi Tagicakibau, 15 Paul Williams
Other Variables
The referee: Alain Rolland (IRE)
The venue:Hamilton. A pretty boring place, but it's got a great stadium for rugby. The weather forecast is for a bit of cloud and easing westerly winds. No major hassle for the high ball and no excuses for slippery hands.
The Verdict
Samoa to pull one out of the bag.
The Pick :
Samoa to win, not by much, but a win.
