Rugby
2011-10-01 - France vs Tonga
A Sports Betting Pick by Mike
Rugby : Rugby World Cup 2011 : Pool A
Saturday, 1st October 2011 - Kickoff 18:00 (local)
Current IRB World Rankings: France 5th, Tonga 13th
France
For Les Bleus this match is important. They have to win to qualify for the quarter-finals. France, who eased past Japan and Canada in their opening matches, are heavy favourites to reach the last eight.
But if France have one of the off days they're prone to having, then Tonga could be in with a sniff of causing the biggest upset of this World Cup.
The Rugby World Cup results for France leading up to this game are as follows:
France 47 - 21 Japan
France 46 - 19 Canada
New Zealand 37 - 17 France
Starting France Team Lineup :
Jean-Baptiste Poux 1, William Servat 2, Luc Ducalcon 3, Pascal Pape 4,
Lionel Nallet 5, Thierry Dusautoir 6, Julien Bonnaire 7, Raphael Lakafia 8, Dimitri Yachvili 9, Morgan Parra 10, Alexis Palisson 11, Maxime Mermoz 12, Aurélien Rougerie 13, Vincent Clerc 14, Maxime Médard 15
On The Bench :
Dimitri Szarzewski 16, Fabien Barcella 17, Julien Pierre 18, Imanol Harinordoquy 19, Francois Trinh-Duc 20, Fabrice Estebanez 21, Cédric Heymans 22
Surprises: Maxime Medard switches to fullback in place of Traille who gets to sit this game out. Palisson comes in on the left wing.
Tonga
Tonga need a big victory to have any chance of reaching the knockout stages of the Rugby World Cup for the first time. The Rugby World Cup results for Tonga leading up to this game are as follows:
New Zealand 41 - 10 Tonga
Tonga 20 - 25 Canada
Tonga 31 - 18 Japan
Team and Tactics
This is a "go hard or go home" game for Tonga.
Tonga can be really physical in their forward pack - France know what to expect, however, and will counter this forward strength well.
The Tongan team have stated that they will attack the French scrum and midfield, but holding out against a highly motivated Les Bleus for the full 80 minutes is unlikely.
Starting Tonga Team Lineup :
1 Soane Tonga'uiha, 2 Aleki Lutui, 3 Kisi Pulu, 4 Tukulua Lokotui, 5 Paino Hehea, 6 Sione Kalamafoni, 7 Finau Maka, 8 Viliami Ma'afu, 9 Taniela Moa, 10 Kurt Morath, 11 Sukanaivalu Hufanga, 12 Andrew Ma'ilei, 13 Siale Piutau, 14 Viliame Iongi, 15 Vungakoto Lilo
Replacements :
16 Ephraim Taukafa, 17 Alisona Taumalolo, 18 Halani Aulika, 19 Joseph Tuineau, 20 Samiu Vahafolau, 21 Samisoni Fisilau, 22 Alipate Fatafehi
Other Variables
Referee: Steve Walsh (AUS)
The Venue: Wellington Regional Stadium
The Weather: Cloudy and dry. Gusty northerlies. NOTE: Gusty to a Wellingtonian can mean anything from gale force to violent storm! Not a game for high balls in a stadium renowned for it's swirling ball.
The Verdict
France SHOULD be 20 points better than Tonga on a normal day, but the situation and the weather probably mean that the game will be a wee bit closer.
I don't believe that Tonga will win, but they'll give it a full-on effort that will last 80 minutes and should keep the margin down.
The Pick :
France 27-15 Tonga
