Rugby
2011-10-09 - New Zealand vs Argentina
A Sports Betting Pick by Mike
Rugby : Rugby World Cup 2011 : Quarter Finals
Sunday, 9th October 2011 - Kickoff 20:30 (local)
Current IRB World Rankings: New Zealand 1st, Argentina 7th
The All Blacks and Argentina have played each other 13 times with 12 wins to the All Blacks and the one draw.
The All Blacks
The All Blacks results from the Rugby World Cup Pool Play:
09/09 New Zealand 41 - 10 Tonga
16/09 New Zealand 83 - 7 Japan
24/09 New Zealand 37 - 17 France
02/10 New Zealand 79 - 15 Canada
Team and Tactics
Key backline players Israel Dagg and Richard Kahui are now out due to injury. Dan Carter and Zac Guildford had already been ruled out of the tournament, so Cory Jane and Sonny Bill Williams start on the wings, right and left, respectively, with veteran Mils Muliaina to in the No 15 jersey.
While some continuity of combinations would have been ideal, I still think that the named team will easily do the business against Argentina.
Starting New Zealand Team Lineup :Tony Woodcock 1, Keven Mealamu 2, Owen Franks 3, Brad Thorn 4, Sam Whitelock 5, Jerome Kaino 6, Richie McCaw 7, Kieran Read 8, Piri Weepu 9, Colin Slade 10, Sonny Bill Williams 11, Ma'a Nonu 12, Conrad Smith 13, Cory Jane 14, Mils Muliaina 15
Reserves :Andrew Hore 16, Ben Franks 17, Ali Williams 18, Victor Vito 19, Jimmy Cowan 20, Aaron Cruden 21, Isaia Toeava 22
Argentina
Argentina are the weakest of the eight quarterfinalists and will struggle to equal their semifinal achievements at the 2007 World Cup.
The Pumas results from the Rugby World Cup Pool Play:
10/09 Argentina 9 - 13 England
17/09 Argentina 43 - 8 Romania
25/09 Argentina 13 - 12 Scotland
02/10 Argentina 25 - 7 Georgia
Team and Tactics
Argentina showed in their pool matches, especially against England and Scotland, just how physical their game is, especially at set pieces and at the breakdown.
While the three wins from their RWC Pool play will have instilled some confidence in the Pumas, they will be fully aware of the challenge this knock out quarter final presents.
Starting Argentina Team Lineup: 1 Rodrigo Roncero, 2 Mario Ledesma Arocena, 3 Juan Figallo, 4 Manuel Carizza, 5 Patricio Albacete, 6 Julio Farias Cabello, 7 Juan Manuel Leguizamón, 8 Leonardo Senatore, 9 Nicolás Vergallo, 10 Santiago Fernández, 11 Horacio Agulla, 12 Felipe Contepomi, 13 Marcelo Bosch, 14 Gonzalo Camacho, 15 Martín Rodríguez
Reserves: 16 Agustín Creevy, 17 Martín Scelzo, 18 Marcos Ayerza, 19 Alejandro Campos, 20 Alfredo Lalanne, 21 Lucas Gonzalez Amorosino, 22 Juan Jose Imhoff
Other Variables
Referee: Nigel Owens (WAL)
The Venue: Eden Park, Auckland
The Weather: Fine, with the chance of a shower. Easterlies. No advantage to either team due to weather.
The Verdict
This is sudden death, finals rugby. The All Blacks will take no prisoners.
New Zealand may, however, manage their injury risk in this game by establishing a credible lead early and then subbing off or "protecting" key players from injury. (For example, don't expect to see captain Richie McCaw - and his much-publicised injured foot - on the field much after half time).
Argentina have only conceded 40 points so far in the tournament, and so I do not expect the score to blow out too much. I'm picking the All Blacks to win, but only by a 20 point margin.
The Pick :
All Blacks to win, by about 20 points
