Rugby
2011-10-08 - Ireland vs Wales
A Sports Betting Pick by Mike
Rugby : Rugby World Cup 2011 : Quarter Finals
Saturday, 8th October 2011 - Kickoff 18.00 (local)
Current IRB World Rankings: Ireland 5th, Wales 6th
Ireland
Ireland's Rugby World Cup 2011 Results :
11/09 Ireland 22 - 10 USA
17/09 Australia 6 - 15 Ireland
25/09 Ireland 62 - 12 Russia
02/10 Ireland 36 - 6 Italy
Team and Tactics
The Irish team has performed especially well in defence during the Pool Play of this Rugby World Cup and, tactically, been very good.
It has to be noted however - that apart from Australia - the other three opponents in the group are very much makeweights and provided little resistance making the games more like training runs.
Coach Declan Kidney is yet to determine who will start as hooker due to injury concerns over Rory Best. Best, Sean Cronin or Damien Varley have all been listed as possible starters in number two or 16.
Starting Ireland Team Lineup :
1. Cian Healy, 2. To be announced, 3. Mike Ross, 4. Donncha O'Callaghan, 5. Paul O'Connell, 6. Stephen Ferris, 7. Sean O'Brien, 8. Jamie Heaslip, 9. Conor Murray, 10. Ronan O'Gara, 11. Keith Earls, 12. Gordon D'Arcy, 13. Brian O'Driscoll (c), 14. Tommy Bowe, 15. Rob Kearney
Replacements :
16. To be announced, 17. Tom Court, 18. Donnacha Ryan, 19. Denis Leamy, 20. Eoin Reddan, 21. Jonathan Sexton, 22. Andrew Trimble
Wales
Wales' Rugby World Cup 2011 Results :
11/09 South Africa 17 - 16 Wales
18/09 Wales 17 - 10 Samoa
26/09 Wales 81 - 7 Namibia
02/10 Wales 66 - 0 Fiji
Team and Tactics
The draw for Wales was a strange one - with the key match of the group coming first up against South Africa - and the Boyo's "nearly" delivered an upset before conceding a late try and a single point loss.
That's happened a lot recently for Wales against South Africa - but better results were to follow with a hard-fought 7 point win over Samoa before a couple of processional wins over two minnows.
Wales coach Warren Gatland has named a team with four changes to the one which beat Fiji 66-0.
Starting Wales Team Lineup :
1 Gethin Jenkins, 2 Huw Bennett, 3 Adam Jones, 4 Luke Charteris, 5 Alun Wyn Jones, 6 Danny Lydiate, 7 Sam Warburton, 8 Toby Faletau, 9 Mike Phillips, 10 Rhys Priestland, 11 Shane Williams, 12 Jamie Roberts, 13 Jonathan Davies, 14 George North, 15 Leigh Halfpenny
Replacements :
16 Lloyd Burns, 17 Paul James, 18 Bradley Davies, 19 Ryan Jones, 20 Lloyd Williams, 21 James Hook, 22 Scott Williams
Other Variables
Referee: Craig Joubert (RSA)
The Venue: Wellington Stadium
The Weather: Fine spells increasing. Southerlies easing. This stadium is renowned for its swirling wind making high ball unpredictable.
The Betting Verdict
I'm picking that most punters will tip Ireland to beat Wales. That not surprising given the Irish win over the Wallabies - but frankly there is not a lot of magic in the Irish play.
Wales, however, has exceeded my expectations in this tournament with excellent defensive play, and in the last three games the Welsh side has also provided a sparkle going forward as well.
Confidence is a funny thing - and if Wales can start off with the swagger that they showed against Fiji then I think they will prove the better team on the day.
There is very little between these two sides, and maybe Ireland should be a slight favourite, but the respective odds on each side overplay that margin for a neutral venue game and the value is definately with the Boyo's.
The Pick :
Ireland 13 - 18 Wales
FIXED ODDS BETTING TIP :
I'll take Wales to win at a very good price at PaddyPower who - due to their userbase - are obviously getting a lot of bets on Ireland!If you are taking Ireland - then do it at StanJames - who have best price on Ireland - and are offering a series of "matched free bets" to sweeten the pot for new players.
